The Yankees Dollar: A New York Yankees Blog

Yep, I'm back already.

2009-07-26T12:56:00.003-04:00

Sure, a week ago I said I was probably not going to be spending much time over here, and that's probably still the case. But every now and then, when something non-Yankees just must be written about, I'll make the trek. I hope you'll make it with me.

Much-maligned Royals #1 overall pick Luke Hochevar had the game of his life yesterday against the Rangers, striking out 13 batters en route to the win. Now, Hochevar was selected 1st overall in his third draft, after holding out for more money each previous year--and he hasn't exactly justified that pick yet, and so when I saw that he'd dominated the Rangers (a very good hitting team!) so thoroughly, I figured the umpire might have had something to do with it. A quick jaunt over to brooksbaseball told the story:

Not only did he not receive much help from the umpire (three balls called strikes off the lefthand side of the above graph), he was significantly hurt by him (EIGHT strikes called balls, a number of which weren't even close to the edge of the strikezone). That's a crazy impressive start, and if you are trolling for starting help on the waiver wire, now's the time to strike. Go get Luke Hochevar.

Happy News Of The Day

2009-07-11T16:13:00.003-04:00

The Mets, realizing that bringing in Jeff Francoeur wasn't the blockbuster move they wanted, have made their next big acquisition, signing Angel Berroa to a minor league contract today.

I just don't get it. As noted previously in this blog, his OPS+ this year so far is negative. How does this guy keep getting chances?

Interesting look at the value of your New York Yankees

2009-07-11T11:01:00.003-04:00

This bit of research was prompted by fellow blogger Antone, over at AllHipHopSports.com, in an article that (correctly) shows that Matt Kemp got absolutely jobbed out of a spot in the allstar game, first with less valuable OF Carlos Beltran being elected over him, then Victorino as well, and finally Charlie Manuel using his managerial decision to choose one of his own (decidedly unworthy) players--Jason Werth.

Looking at the total value list on fangraphs, for which the derivations are explained in depth in the Fangraphs glossary, I wondered how the Yankees have done. For all the resources wielded by the Evil Empire and those Beaneaters over in Boston, just one player makes a showing on the top 10 list--and it's not who you think. No, not Mark Teixeira or Alex Rodriguez, not Johnny Damon (having his best season yet) either.

It's Derek Jeter, clocking in at $15.6 million in value so far this year, good for 8th on the list. Read that again....in half of this season, Derek Jeter has been worth $15.6 million in production to the Yankees. Now, just by being a shortstop, Jeter gets a boost--3.4 win shares. In comparison, Albert Pujols (unsurprisingly leading the major leagues in value) takes a bath in win shares, losing 6.6 just for being a first baseman. Jeter's value is almost entirely locked up in his offensive abilities--he has 18.4 offensive win shares this year, in comparison to 0.2 defensive win shares. But just by being average defensively, Jeter is adding more defensive value than he has in the past. Between 2005 and 2008, Jeter was worth -36.9 win shares (though last year he was surprisingly average as well, only losing 0.5 win shares defensively).

Jeter's contract is often raised as an example of the excesses of Yankee financial might. People justify his massive contract through his leadership, his conduct, his intangibles. But this year, Jeter is doing it on his own, on pace to be a downright bargain (and this is completely separate from the money the team makes on Jeter memorabilia, or the tickets sold to fans who come to the games to see him). Now, he's probably not going to end the year worth $30 million to the team, mostly because his defense is likely to tick downward, and his slash line against lefties isn't going to remain .460/.535/.667 . But unless he falls off a cliff, the Yankees captain will be well worth his contract this year on pure performance, and that's going to make it extremely difficult for the Yankees come contract time with Jeter, who will be able to both raise his image as Yankee icon, and his performance as Yankee player, when making his demands.

Derek Jeter $15.6 million
Mark Teixeira $11.2 million
Robinson Cano $9.8 million
Alex Rodriguez $9.3 million
Jorge Posada $9.2 million
Brett Gardner $9.2 million (wow!)
Johnny Damon $7.7 million
Nick Swisher $6.6 million
Hideki Matsui $5.3 million
Melky Cabrera $4.3 million (note how low he is relative to Gardner...)
Ramiro Pena $1.3 million
Jose Molina $1.2 million
Francisco Cervelli $0.1 million
Cody Ransom -$2.0 million
Angel Berroa -$2.3 million

Your humble author is one who has been open about his desire to see Derek Jeter move from shortstop to a more suitable position--maybe center field, maybe 2B in a swap with Robinson Cano. Today, I am fairly happy to sit back and marvel at the player that Jeter is. How lucky we are to have had him for so long. This is going to make Brian Cashman's life very hard when decisions on what to do about Cap'n Jetes come around a few short years from now.

A look at the pitching through a similar lens to follow later.

Stop The Madness

2009-07-10T22:07:00.006-04:00

If you ever needed a reason to keep Ramiro Pena on the major league team instead of Cody Ransom, tonight's the night, as Ransom is getting the start at shortstop. Fangraphs' UZR tells us that the last time Ransom's defense was above average at SS was in 2003, when his UZR/150 was 6.5. Since then he's been double digits bad each year he's had a chance to register on UZR's radar.

This isn't big news--anyone watching the games would probably agree that Ransom looks shaky out there, and that's been at 3B. Why we would ever expect Ransom to reasonably man the most important defensive position in the game effectively when he's unable to handle lesser assignments particularly well, I don't know. And we know it's not for his bat, which has dissapeared since the league realized that it's silly to throw Ransom fastballs in the zone (his OBP is .243, in an admittedly tiny 65 AB so far this year). Maybe we're just trying to handicap ourselves to make the game fairer for the Angels, who put their two biggest boppers on the DL yesterday in the persons of Vladimir Guerrerro and Torii Hunter.

The best reason I can think of for Cody Ransom to still be up is that Cashman's brain trust has looked at the numbers and determined that last year wasn't entirely a mirage--that Ransom might actually have some offensive upside in his bones. I don't see it, but there's a reason they get paid the big bucks. Also, by all accounts Ransom is an extremely good guy, well liked by his teammates, and he's had a fairly rough year with the quad injury after a slow start--possibly the thought process is that they'd like to give him an opportunity to be useful or fail, rather than simply assuming that he would be useless. It's a bit of a gamble--the difference between Ransom and Pena isn't likely to cost the Yankees any games when he's at 3B--but it's likely to be an adventure with him at short tonight, and if he boots a ball at a key point in the game, you can expect the second guessing to start.

Good thing we're up 3-0 to start the night out.

Update: Check that--Jeter came in to take Ransom's place, and promptly dropped a routine pop up. Along with an ARod error as well, this game was downright brutal.

Omar Calls For Reinforcements

2009-07-10T18:07:00.004-04:00

Cue the band, here comes the Mets' bigtime acquisition to save the season.

Amazingly, for this white knight, they only had to give up Ryan Church--mere peanuts, right? Thus far this season he's gone .280/.332/.375 in limited playing time, which is good for a .310 wOBA--below his career average of .342. That makes him a slightly below average player, though his defense adds some value, with single digit positive UZR/150 for both this season and for his career. In terms of Fangraphs' value delivered, his last two seasons he's created $11.7MM and $7.1MM, and has a decidedly meh $1.7MM thus far this year.

So, the cost isn't particularly big--and as MLB reported, it's a straight up swap. Except, the player coming back is Jeff Franceour, he of the .282 OBP. Let that OBP number really sink in for a moment.

But of course, Francouer is known for being a strong defensive player, right? As recently as 2007, he put up a 17.1 UZR/150 in RF over the course of the season, and his career average is 7.7. Except last year he was good for -4.9 UZR/150, and this year it's -1.5 so far. Other than being 25 and having a strong arm, it doesn't look like there's any upside whatsoever for Franceour. In terms of Fangraphs' value created, here's what his last three years look like:

In 2007: $14.1 million (great)
2008: -$5.7 million (yikes)
2009: -$2.6 million (so far)

Numerically, it looks pretty clear that any number of cheaply available RF are better players than Frenchy, among them Ryan Church. This is a rough sell to the fanbase, as well--it neither helps now, or in the future. I suppose that the bright side is they didn't give up any prospects in the deal?

My main question: why didn't the Mets go get Eric Hinske, if they were so determined to give in to Jerry Manuel's dislike of Church?

I was also astounded to find out that Jeff Francoeur has a website of his own.

Hey Boss--I didn't do my job, and you can't do jack about it.

2009-07-08T20:09:00.005-04:00

That's essentially what 3B umpire Marty Foster said to Derek Jeter on Monday after calling him out on an attempted steal of third base. From the AP, via MLB.com:

"I was just baffled by the explanation," Jeter said. "I was told I was out, because the ball beat me, and he didn't have to tag me. I was unaware they had changed the rules."

There are always going to be some mistakes made by umpires. They're just as human as the rest of us, and over time the mistakes are going to even out. But there has to be some accountability for these guys, who make a hefty living (Rob Neyer quotes $300k per year, for only 6-7 months of work).

Even worse, crew chief Rob Hirschbeck answered all the questions for Foster's blunder (and didn't help matters much):

"You have to make sure that you have a tag," Hirschbeck said. "It used to be if the ball beat you, you were out. It isn't that way anymore. It's not a reason to call someone out. You have to have a clean tag."

Hirschbeck added that, if Jeter's representation of Foster's on-field comments were correct, Jeter's confusion would have been understandable.

"In my 27 years in the big leagues, he's probably the classiest person I've been around," Hirschbeck said. "It would make his actions seem appropriate if that's what he was told."

The players and coaches make themselves available for the media when they make game changing errors. Yet umpires rarely do. To be clear, an umpire is best doing his job when we don't notice he's even there. But that's during the game, Marty. You screw up your job, and then openly admit it (without admitting you've done anything wrong, either) and then toss Joe Girardi when he decides to say something about it, you better be willing to answer a question or two after the game.

No doubt about it. If the events that have been reported thus far are completely accurate, Foster should be fired.

Back from vacation, part two

2009-07-08T12:37:00.002-04:00

Sorry for the lack of posts lately, folks. I had to get my inner patriot on, and made it out to Maine to celebrate the 4th of July. But I'm back, stuffed to the gills with lobster, crab, and leaking pure Sauza from my pores.

And what a week it's been! We've seen the return of Mannywood, the Jays' epiphany (which we suggested here at TYD weeks ago), the beginning of the end for "fake tag" calls, the continuation of the Tom Hicks' financial woes (again, called months ago here at TYD), two buyers for the Cubs, and Billy Beane making sweet, sweet rape to his old friend Paul DePodesta (or at least, Paul's boss, Kevin Towers).

All of these will warrant posts of the their own in the next day or two--as well as an interesting giveaway from a Yankee-minded entrepreneur, for some lucky reader. Check back later for much, much more.

More Than I Ever Needed To Know About Ian Snell

2009-07-02T08:49:00.003-04:00

Demoted pitcher Ian Snell fanned 13 AAA batters in a row (and 17 overall) yesterday, which has to be some sort of record. That prompted the following exchange, on live TV.

Nice.

Yankees acquire Eric Hinske

2009-06-30T12:27:00.006-04:00

It's just been announced that the Yankees have acquired Eric Hinske from the Pittsburgh Pirates for two minor leaguers, OF Eric Fryer and RHP Casey Erickson. Joel Sherman suggests eight reasons this deal got done.

First off, Eric Fryer and Casey Erickson were essentially non-prospects on the Yankees. Fryer is behind current big leaguers Gardner and Melky, and the much balyhoo'd Austin Jackson (among others). The Yankees will likely target Matt Holliday in the offseason as well (if they don't resign Johnny Damon, who is having his best year yet). Casey Erickson is having a fine season at Single A ball, but he turns 24 in August--at his advanced age, he should be toying with that level of competition. Neither have ever made the Yankees top 30 prospect list as published by Baseball America.

That the Yankees didn't give anything significant up for Eric Hinske does not necesarily make it a good deal. Especially as the Yankees have indicated that they will send Ramiro Pena down to clear space for him (opting for Cody "Angel Berroa" Ransom as utility infielder, and virtually assuring that Francisco Cervelli will go down for Jose Molina).

I suppose that Hinske's ability to play 3B, 1B and the corner OF positions makes him somewhat attractive, and Fangraphs' defensive metrics have him as a positive contributor at all but 3B over the course of his career. Additionally, he was very valuable as a member of the AL champion Rays last season, when his batted ball statistics were very closely in line with his career averages, with one exception: the percentage of his fly balls which left the yard, which stood at 16.8%, a full five percentage points above his career average. This year, his power seems to have fallen significantly, as his fly balls are only clearing the fences a measly 3.2% of the time, and he is hitting line drives at a 15.4% clip, 4.5% below his 2008 performance.

Coming to the Yankees will instantly drive up his HR/FB%, as has been documented just about everywhere (though it isn't helping Nick Swisher, for some bizarre reason). The Yankees are also probably counting on his LD% returning to previous norms. It appears this will be the last hurrah for Cody Ransom, who has really had it bad this year, between starting off terribly and then getting significantly injured. Pena will be back at some point, very possibly to stay in the team's "Chone Figgins" role, otherwise known as utility OF/IF.

Hinske is on the wrong side of 30, but he's essentially free, cost just about nothing to acquire, and has a bit of upside in him if he rediscovers last year's power.

Update: Uber-Blogger Rob Neyer weighs in on the subject.

Mariano Rivera Is My Hero

2009-06-28T23:45:00.003-04:00

Lifetime regular season batting line: 0 for 2 with a walk and an RBI. And now he's got 500 saves.

Note to K-Rod: Karma's a bitch.

Jeff "Kevin Brown" Bennett

2009-06-25T19:06:00.003-04:00

So, remember Jeff Bennett, the Braves relief pitcher who came in to try to pitch out of a tough situation and didn't exactly succeed last night? He's ended up channeling Kevin Brown last night, and broke his hand punching a wall. But amazingly, he did this between innings. And came out to pitch with a broken hand, after popping the break back into place himself. Quoth ESPN:

"ATLANTA -- Braves right-hander Jeff Bennett has been placed on the 15-day disabled list a day after breaking his left hand when he punched a door in frustration.

Bennett on Thursday said he was angry after allowing inherited runners to score on Alex Rodriguez's two-run single in Atlanta's 8-4 loss to the New York Yankees on Wednesday night .

After the injury, Bennett said he popped a bone into place in his left hand, allowing him to pitch the seventh, but Nick Swisher led off the inning with a homer to give New York a 4-1 lead."

Holy crap.

Give Jorge some love...

2009-06-25T00:36:00.002-04:00

David O'Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution has come out and said that Brian McCann and Joe Mauer are two of the best hitting catchers of his lifetime.

I can't argue with Joe Mauer, not one bit. He's been nothing short of astonishing. But just in terms of hitting? Mike Piazza is the obvious question here, who is almost certainly the best offensive catcher with any reasonable # of at bats in the history of the game. But there's another who you can't dismiss, Jorge Posada.

Brian McCann, in his 5 years playing in the majors, has a 124 OPS+. Jorge Posada, over 15 years has......a 124 OPS+.

Now, McCann is very young, still 25. He's still coming into his own. But let me make it very clear: It's unlikely that 10 years from now his OPS+ will still be as high as 124+. There just aren't many catchers, across the history of major league baseball, who have performed to such a high level over such a long time. And all of them who have (correct me if you know of someone I haven't seen) are in the hall of fame, or have not yet been eligible to be on the ballot (Piazza). Sure thing HOF Ivan Rodriguez (bleh) checks in at a yawn-inducing 109 OPS+.

Jorge Posada is one of the most underrated players in the majors today, something very hard to be while a member of the New York Yankees. It's not just a coincidence that their not making the playoffs since 1995 was also the year they lost Posada for the vast majority of the season (though Wang certainly did his part).

Of course, David O'Brien's home newspaper has nothing to do with him including Atlanta catcher Brian McCann, and not a very obviously more deserving player.

Farewell, Sweet Prince

2009-06-25T00:22:00.003-04:00

Much, much too late, Angel Berroa has been exorcised from the Yankee lineup.

It's a shame that this didn't happen earlier in the season, partially because we had to expose several reasonable prospects to the rest of the league to keep him, and partially because Berroa had a -6 OPS+ for the Yankees this year. Read that again--and be amazed. I wasn't even aware that a normalized statistic could be negative. That means that Angel Berroa is more than 100% worse than the average offensive player. Isn't that impossible?

Come on, Peter.

2009-06-20T18:25:00.007-04:00

Peter Gammons is the top of the sports journalism world, having been honored by the Hall of Fame for his contributions to the sport.

But sometimes he really throws out some boneheaded stuff, and most of the time this has to do with the Red Sox, his favorite team. Now, don't get me wrong--I'm not one to complain about an ESPN analyst having fan leanings one way or the other--I think it's fine for journalists to be open about their chosen teams (in fact, I think it adds a lot to the conversation). But Peter, if one of my friends made the suggestion you threw out in your most recent blog post, regarding what it would take to pry Brad Penny away from the Red Sox, I would openly mock their suggestion. The comment in full, below:

"Brad Penny would probably be the best starting pitcher out there [on the trade market], but unless someone comes up with a Justin Smoak, Matt LaPorta or Brett Wallace -- which isn't going to happen -- they are going to hold onto Penny, who is two years removed from finishing third in the NL Cy Young race."

Do you want me to list the have beens and the luckboxes who have managed to finish 3rd in a Cy Young race? The Sox signed Bartolo Colon last year, who was 3 years seperate from WINNING the Cy Young. Think you could have traded him for more than a bag of balls?

Last year, Matt LaPorta was traded for C.C. Sabathia, who had won the previous year's Cy Young, and went on to garner a significant number of Cy Young votes playing a HALF SEASON in the NL. Justin Smoak is a 22 year old who is absolutely torching AA, with a line of .325/.444/.503. He's drawing comparisons to Mark Teixeira. Brett Wallace is not on the same level as either of the previous prospects (especially as he's put up a .294 wOBA since being promoted to AAA) but given his pedigree and previous performance (~.400 wOBA before this year through AA) he's still extremely highly thought of.

Brad Penny is not worth any of these prospects. Especially given that he is blocking laptop stealing uberprospect Clay Buchholz, who is killing it in AAA; John Smoltz, who expects a chance to start; and solid prospects Justin Masterson and Michael Bowden. The Red Sox would be very foolish to hold on to Penny, and simply assuming that he's going to continue on his current streak. I could pick you out several periods in which Barry Zito was very good over the past few years. Or Livan Hernandez, for that matter. Could Brad Penny be back? Sure, it's possible. Would I bet on it (even if he were on the Yankees)? Nope. Given the massive depth the Red Sox have at starting pitching, they're really much better off moving Penny, and other teams know it.

Is Penny worth a decent prospect or two? Sure. But he's not worth a team's first rounder, and Gammons should know this better than most of us. He's been around and intimately involved in the sport for a long time. Which is why it's tougher to swallow this sort of crud from him.

I'm gone for 9 days, and look what happens...

2009-06-20T16:45:00.001-04:00

Whew, looks like I missed an interesting week, didn't I?

After spending the last 9 days in sunny California, a few thoughts.

1) First off, we lost a series to the Washington Nationals, and everyone is searching for the nearest bridge from which to hurl themselves. Listen, folks, this is Baseball. The best teams win ~65% of the time and the worst teams win ~35% of the time. That number extrapolated tells us that in a 3 game series with the Nationals, they'll win at least 2 of the games 12-13% of the time (and of that, 3-4% will be sweeps). Remember when the Royals swept the Yankees a few years back? It happens. A note to my colleague Jason--it's unlikely that the Red Sox will beat the Nationals all three games. The same calculation as done above says the Sox will sweep almost 30% of the time. That means that the Red Sox are a way, way better team than the Nationals. But no teams are guaranteed sweeps.

More surprising than taking the series from the Yankees, is the simple fact that the Nationals had managed to go 16-45 coming into the series. They won a miniscule 26% of their games to that point. Given that they were also leading the league in LD% (though they've since slipped to 2nd, behind the Indians) and had the lowest strand rate in the majors (pointing to poor luck with batters on base) this sustained period of dramatic failure couldn't continue. That's not to say the Nats are going to turn it around and contend. They just couldn't be that awful all season. Too bad the worm turned when they were playing the Yanks.

2) While in San Francisco I had the pleasure of seeing three games in AT&T Park, which has to be one of the best stadiums in the country. I've been to plenty of games, in plenty of parks, and the only place that gives AT&T a run for its money (in my humple opinion) is Camden. Fenway is great, I've never been to Wrigley, and the new Yankee Stadium is baseball's version of Disneyland, but the park located at 24 Willie Mays Plaza, San Francisco is a revelation. I had the luck of sitting in three different sections--first behind the home dugout, close enough to reach out and poke Edgar Renteria, next in the family and friends section (and might I add here that Pablo Sandoval has an exceptionally attractive wife) and finally in the upper deck behind home plate.

The first game, in the posh dugout seating, I had the privilege of watching Randy Johnson win his 302nd game against the rival A's, and he even shook hands with the bat boy after walking off the field. The New York version of RJ would have punched him in the stomach. Along the same lines, I made friends with the "security guard", a lovely lady named Michelle, who told stories of working the first ever game in Candlestick back in 1960, as an intern. In Yankee stadium, I feel nervous making eye contact with the security guards, who act as if they're ready to punch you in the mouth if you step out of line. Lonn Trost should take a page out of Peter Magowan's book.

Another thing--Yankee Stadium is nice, but I wouldn't want to hang around that neighborhood when there wasn't a game going on. AT&T Park is beautiful both inside and out--it's surrounded by nice restaurants, a massive Borders, and luxury apartments. How on earth have we bungled it so badly on the East Coast? The most expensive cities to live in the US are New York and San Francisco, so I don't buy the idea that the Yankees couldn't afford to sort out a nice area to place the stadium.

While the Giants had just as much schmaltz between innings (fan trivia, that memory card game, etc.) they were actually worth watching, as the fans occasionally got the answers wrong and walked away empty handed. Does it erk anyone else that no fan shown on the jumbotron at Yankee Stadium ever gives the wrong answer? I'm happy that Joe Lampost in the field level gets his $20 Modell's gift certificate, but I'd rather not waste my time watching him do it, given that I know fullwell that the moment his chubby face hits the screen, he's already a winner.

They also had someone sing the national anthem before each game, and a kid seemingly chosen at random got to throw out the ball for a few of the games. Talk about earning a lifelong fan--this stuff should be easy to do. Why don't the Yankees follow suit?

Finally, the food was unreal. Items consumed: Ghiradelli hot fudge sunday, Bratwurst, Churro, and a "triple play" from the carving station. For the cost of a pulled pork sandwich in Yankee Stadium, you got three half sandwiches--one roast turkey with cranberry sauce, one roast beef with horseradish, and one bbq brisket. And these weren't premade--you got to see them slice the meat off of the roast itself in front of you. Oh, and Anchor Steam beer puts any and every alcoholic offering in Yankee Stadium to shame (that I've seen).

Alright. I've got lots more to write about soon, not least of all Johan Santana's terrifyingly bad start against the Yankees (in which he seemingly corrected the separation of his slider and other pitches that I wrote about a few days beforehand). But for now, I'm all blogged out. Good to be back. Go Yanks!

Oh No...

2009-06-19T00:40:00.006-04:00

After a 5 hour rain delay, the Yankees decided not to show up to the rubber match tonight against the Nationals. As a result, the Yankees were shut out at home for the first time, losing to the Nationals 3-0, and ultimately losing a series to the worst team in baseball. It was also the first homerless game at the new Yankee Stadium. If more fans were on hand to witness this let down, the boos would have been deafening. I don't understand how the Yankees were 21-0 before these games against the Nationals when holding their opponent to 3 runs or less, and in the last two games, they've lost 3-2 and 3-0. They are now 21-2 in these situations.

The Yankees will be sorry they let two of these games get away, I can tell you that much. With the Red Sox playing the Nationals next, I can almost guarantee they will take all three. The Yankees will need to make up these games against another team; maybe they'll wake up and start winning some games against the Red Sox. Let's hope this series doesn't put the Yankees offense into an extended slump.

Joba Chamberlain allowed three runs in 6 innings, although his outing wasn't pretty by any stretch of the imagination. He breezed through the first 3 innings, allowing only 1 run, throwing only 30 pitches. However, he unravelled in the next two innings. In the fourth, he allowed one hit and walked three, including a walk to Wil Nieve with two outs to plate a run. In the fifth, he allowed two doubles, allowing the third run to score. Ten of Chamberlain's outs came via the groundball, versus only 1 fly ball out (on a fouled bunt attempt).

Craig Stammen got his first win of the season, and of his career, against the Yankees tonight. He pitched 6 1/3 innings of no run ball, and really used his sinker ball well tonight. The Yankees continued their struggles against new pitchers, and if I were an opposing manager, I would bring in 3 rookies to face the Yankees in a 3 game series; you're guaranteed to win at least 2.

In other news, Brett Gardner made a sensational play up against the wall in the top of the 8th, only to leave the game with what must have been at least a concussion. He slammed into the wall after making the catch, and his head whip-lashed back. Hopefully he'll be okay in a few days.

The Yankees will now hit the road to face the Florida Marlins, who thankfully, won a rain shortened game against the Red Sox Thursday 2-1 in 6 innings. The Yankee pitchers will get to swing the bats for the first time all season. Joe Girardi and the Yankee Brass must be crossing their fingers, hoping to avoid another Chien-Ming Wang hitting/baserunning nightmare from occuring.

Yankees Lose One to Nationals

2009-06-18T01:01:00.004-04:00

Yep. The unimaginable happened. The Yankees fell to the Nationals 3-2 Wednesday night. And believe it or not, this is the first game the Yankees have lost all season when holding the opposition to 3 runs or less. John Lannan was too much for the Yankees offense to handle, throwing 8 1/3 innings of 4 hit ball. He held the Yankees hitless until the 5th, when Cano broke the no hitter and the shut out with a solo shot to right field, his 12th. It'll be hard for Cano to get to the All-Star game despite his strong season, sitting behind reigning MVP Dustin Pedroia and Texas phenom Ian Kinsler.

As for my predictions on the series, I was almost right. The Yankees got to the bullpen too late to do any real damage, as Mike MacDougal came in with an out in the 9th up by one run. Johnny Damon led off the ninth inning with a solo shot to cut the deficit in half. Then with one out, Mark Teixeira walked to put the tying run on base. Brett Gardner pinch ran, and was nearly the hero of the game. He immediately stole second and third base, putting himself in prime position to score the tying run. The Yankees didn't even need a hit to take this one to extras. However, after a walk to A-Rod, Cano couldn't come through. He fouled off several 2-2 pitches before grounding into a double play to end the game.

Chien-Ming Wang was decent tonight, and I think it will earn him another start. He got through the first three innings allowing only 1 hit, but unravelled in the 4th and 5th. Adam Dunn homered (he wasn't going to leave town without one) in the 4th, and Nick Johnson (former Yankee) hit a 2 run triple in the 5th. Unfortunately, the third run should've never reached base in the first place, another one we can toss up to Crappy Umpiring.

For two straight games now, the Yankees have been held in check by a pitcher they have never faced. This is a bad trend for the Yankees, as they cannot put up runs against pitchers they are unfamiliar with. Tomorrow's starter is Craig Stammen, another pitcher they have never faced, so they will have to find a way to score runs against him.

The Yankees have now put themselves in a must win situation in June. If the Yankees lose two straight to the Nationals, they will pretty much be the laughing stock of the league. Not to mention the rest of the division will do the job against them, as they should. Only the Yankees can look so mediocre against the worst team in the league, although to John Lannan's credit, he's been the lone bright spot in the Nationals' rotation this season. Hopefully they show up tomorrow to take the series.

One Down, Two to Go...

2009-06-17T13:08:00.004-04:00

Yes! The Washington Nationals are in town. This Nationals club led the Majors with 46 losses coming into Tuesday night. Many Yankees fans, including myself, would think that this is a good thing, to be facing the worst team in the Majors. Three quick and easy wins, right?

Guess again. There are a few things going against us in this series. The Nationals are going to throw three pitchers that this Yankees team is unfamiliar with: Shairon Martis, John Lannan, and Craig Stammen. What happened the last time the Yankees faced a pitcher they didn't quite know? The Mets' Fernando Nieve held the Yankees down for 7 solid innings over the weekend. And it wasn't the Yankees offense slumping, because they rocked the 2nd best left-handed starter (maybe the best) in baseball for 9 runs in 3 innings the following day.

Judging from last night's 5-3 victory, this series could three close games. One bad start from any starter (especially Chien-Ming Wang tonight) could be too much to overcome, as this Nationals' offense is potent. Adam Dunn will not leave town without having some fun of his own in the new softball field in the Bronx. Their starters may hold us down for a few innings, but as long as our starters can keep us in the game (as CC did last night), this offense can explode on the Nationals' non-existent bullpen. If we're within 2 runs when the bullpen takes over for the Nationals, don't worry, we've got it in the bag.

And we need to have all three games in this series. Every team in our division (besides the Rays, what a bad break for them) will play the Nationals for three games this season. I don't know what advanced scouting is out there, but I do not see the Red Sox losing any games to the Nationals when they play later in the month.

Therefore, this series turns out to be a no gain situation. If we win all three, we merely keep pace with the Red Sox, who will have their Nationals bashing turn. However, if we lay down and give one away, the Red Sox will surely be ready with the dagger. The Yankees need to put pressure on the Sox. If we can't beat the Red Sox, we better beat everybody else, Nationals included. I don't see this as winning three games, I now see this as keeping pace with the rest of the division. If the Nationals steal a game from the Red Sox or Blue Jays, we can then appreciate the fact that we did our job and took all three games. One game is in the books, only two more to go...

"The Drop"

2009-06-13T10:53:00.006-04:00

What can you say? I was speechless. All I could do was scream and hug other Yankee fans, only mildly taking pleasure in the Mets fans' despair. It was one of the most improbable finishes one would EVER see, and I was lucky enough to be there.

Luis Castillo had just dropped what would have been a game ending pop-up, allowing Derek Jeter and a hustling Mark Teixeira (busting it around the bases) to score, and the Yankees to win. Unbelievable. If you told me about, it I might not have believed it. Thankfully. and luckily, I got to see it for my own two eyes.

This is an ending that you will probably never see again. Sure you will see guys drop simple pop-ups, make silly errors, and have metal blocks. But you will NEVER see that end a game, allowing multiple runs to score, LET ALONE in a Subway Series between New York's two hometown heroes.

The game was a back and forth affair, the Yanks going ahead 1-0 early on a Robinson Cano homer. The Mets came right back when Joba Chamberlain walked the bases loaded, then walked one run in and issued a HBP to force in another. The Yankees then took the lead 3-2 after Mark Teixeira's bomb. After Brett Tomko's implosion left the score 6-3 Mets, Derek Jeter notched one for the home team to make it 6-4. In the bottom of the 6th, Birthday Boy Hideki Matsui clobbered a long 3-run HR into the second deck in right field to make it 7-6 Yanks. The Mets then scratched out two more runs, setting the stage for the improbable bottom of the 9th.

Another story is Joba Chamberlain. He was not long for this game. He had thrown 100 pitches by the end of the 4th inning. That is not acceptable, Joba has much better control then he showed. His problem this year has been the walk. Putting runners on base only sets you up for larger and more damaging innings to occur, especially when a team only has one hit off of up until that point.

The thing is, I feel humble about this "Win". It was a wacky way to win on a walk-off "pop-up". The atmosphere in the stadium alone was in and of itself enough tho warrant the price of admission. The Yankee fans had fun and left with disbelief, the Met fans too had fun, until the end of the game, they too leaving in a more negative disbelief. I wonder if these two still love each other after this game...

The Best Pitching Money Can Buy?

2009-06-13T01:01:00.006-04:00

The Yankees starting pitching has been pretty terrible lately. Actually, all season. With a starting staff of Sabathia, Burnett, Wang, Pettitte, and Chamberlain, the Yankees were supposed to have one of the deepest rotations in the league. Instead, they've boasted one of the most mediocre rotations, with the exception of Sabathia. Let's take a look at what has gone down for the rotation thus far this season.

Probably one of the most disappointing signings this off season for the Yankees has been AJ Burnett. Given a 5 year, $82.5 million contract, he was supposed to be the latter half of a dominating 1-2 punch in the Bronx. Instead, he's been pretty terrible. Apparently, the AJ Burnett the Yankees saw against them last season (3-1 1.64 ERA against NYY last season) was not the AJ Burnett the rest of the league enjoyed. Against the rest of the league in 2008, Burnett was 15-9 with a 4.57 ERA. Ohh, that's the AJ Burnett we just gave a boatload of money too! That one looks familiar! Unfortunately, it's too late to go back now. This season, Burnett has not lived up to the contract, going 4-3 with a 4.89 ERA in 12 starts. He still has time to turn around the season, but he cannot contine to leave hitable fastballs over the middle of the plate. Even David Ortiz can hit that pitch out of the park.

Shocking, but not so shocking, are Chien-Ming Wang's struggles. Everybody keeps saying how Chien-Ming Wang has won 19 games twice and 8 before getting hurt early in 2008, but I'm not buying that excuse anymore. Everybody remembers how he struggled during the divisional series against the Indians in 2007, right? Well, now he just pitching that way every single time out. His velocity was down early, but now that it's back, he still can't get hitters out consistently. Honestly, I would have liked to see Wang in AAA for 5 or 6 starts before coming back. Stretch him out over 100 pitches everytime out, and let him battle through his struggles down there. Don't take Hughes out of the rotation just when he was starting to hit his stride. Well, instead of the dominating sinkerballer consistently winning ball games, this season we've gotten a pitcher who gives away the game before the 5th inning (0-4 21.60 ERA as a starter).

Joba Chamberlain is still a work in progres. Obviously, starting ball games is a different animal to tame than the 8th inning role he dominated in 2007 and 2008. What we've seen from Joba this season is an inconsistent starter unable to efficiently put away hitters. I ask this one question when I see Joba Chamberlain throwing 92 MPH in the 3rd and 4th inning: "What are you saving your stuff for? The game is on the line, go after him!" Honestly, why does Chamberlain need to save his stuff in the middle of the game? Take a look at Justin Verlander: he throws 97-100 MPH throughout the entirety of his starts, even after 122 pitches in the 9th inning. Chamberlain needs to leave it all out on the field and go after every hitter that steps up to the plate. He's walked a ton, and he's seen his high pitch counts cut many of his outings short. With Burnett and Wang stuggling, Chamberlain's outings only put further stress on the weak bullpen. He has averaged only 5 2/3 innings per start, and that's not counting his outing against Baltimore cut short in the 1st after getting hit by a batted ball. Chamberlain's stats so far this season: 3-1 3.84 ERA and in 63.1 IP, 58K/33BB - an abysmal ratio of 1.76 K/BB. He needs to be better.

Andy Pettitte has been what you'd expect from a 37 year old veteran starting pitcher (also the projected 4th starter to begin the year). In 12 games, he has a 6-2 record with a 4.22 ERA. Not spectacular, but he's been solid, and is actually on pace to win close to 18 games this season.

CC Sabathia has been absolutely spectacular. Worth every penny. No, he couldn't pull out the victory against Boston on Thursday night, but it took a gutsy AB against the MVP to knock out Sabathia in the 8th inning. Leaving the game to the bullpen is never a good idea in NY these days, as the bullpen went on to give up the 3-1 lead. Sabathia's stats thus far through 13 starts: 5-4 3.68 ERA. Not to mention, he's averaging over 7 innings per start, giving the bullpen much needed days off.

Hey, with the pitching this team has had so far, things could be much worse. We're only 2 games back of the first place Red Sox, and 9 games over .500. Considering the miserable starts the Yankees usually get off too, I'd say this one isn't too shabby.

Off to the west coast...

2009-06-11T15:19:00.001-04:00

I'm off in a short while to Santa Cruz to enjoy the good life on a beach for the week. Preferably with a tasty beverage in hand, most of the time.

My compatriots will be manning the fort for this week, though you might hear a peep or two from me, especially if something interesting happens.

Till then--Go Yanks!

Tipping Pitches: Johan Santana Edition

2009-06-11T02:13:00.008-04:00

We hear about pitchers tipping their upcoming offerings fairly often from newscasters, columnists and announcers alike. Most of the time, however, these suggestions will come after a pitcher is torched particularly badly, and there isn't another easy justification. The thought is often phrased something like this: "Burnett is really getting hit today, and I have to wonder, Kenny, if he's tipping his pitches." It's never "see how slow his arm speed was on that changeup? The hitter must have known it was coming." Think of it as a diagnosis of last resort. If there's no other reason he's getting hit (personal issues, bad stuff on a given night, lack of command, good hitters on the other team) he must be telegraphing what his next pitch is going to be.

But for once, dear readers, we have an example of clear pitch tipping for you.

A close friend came to visit me today, and as we were discussing baseball analysis, I decided to show him brooksbaseball.net, to give him a quick understanding of Pitch f/x. As my buddy is a huge Mets fan, I decided to take a look at Johan Santana's performance last night. Most was what you'd expect--but one chart stuck out significantly. Take a look:
So, Santana's release point varies left to right by about a foot and a half? That's fairly rare--unless a pitcher is varying all of his pitches equally, it can give an aware batter (or a batter who has someone like me feeding them hints) a better idea of what's coming. And with one quick change to the table selection, and we get the following chart.

Feast your eyes on that. Mets' fans, this should worry you--a lot. When throwing his slider, Santana throws from a significantly different release point. You might think 6 inches is not a big difference, but in this day and age, batters have the ability to pull up tape of a given pitcher for just about every major league pitch they've ever thrown. Watch Santana throw 100 pitches or so, and the difference should become fairly easy to pick up.

Now, if Santana had been doing this throughout his career, then you could assume that it's not a big issue. If hitters haven't picked up on it over the past 7 years--or picked up on it and couldn't capitalize on it, there must be no problem, right? So, let's take a trip down memory lane, to Santana's start on June 12, 2008, nearly one year ago.

And as you can see, there's no separation here. His pitches are evenly distributed over about a foot, horizontally. Maybe it's just one game, though? He's been phenomenal this year, right? Not so fast. Here's his start against the Pirates, back on June 2nd:

Go back to previous starts this year, and you'll see the same thing. Now, this is a subtle enough difference that it would be tough to pick up on the fly. But if a hitter knew to look, well, that's why they get paid the big bucks, right?

Look, I know umpires are going to make mistakes....

2009-06-10T20:40:00.002-04:00

But can't they just try to not do it at critical moments in the game? 2 men on, 2 out, down 4-2 in the 4th inning, Damon was subject to this terribly called at bat. Sheesh.

Presented without comment

2009-06-09T19:42:00.005-04:00

Off to rehearsal for the night. Hope this doesn't come back to hurt us. What the heck, ump?

Update: Couldn't leave fast enough: Ortiz hits a two run bomb that ought to have been a one run bomb. I hate being right sometimes.

As the thunder crashes down

2009-06-09T02:54:00.006-04:00

Half of the car alarms on my street are going off in response to lightning striking the trees near my apartment building, and at this point sleep isn't a solid option. So, I'll take my first shot at the easiest of the Hit f/x analysis. Using just the sortable stats available on fangraphs.com for teams batted ball data, running correlations against the April average speed off bat provided by Matt Carruth, here are the correlations for your reading pleasure.

(For the non pocket protector carrying members of our audience--correlations range between 1 and -1, with 1 meaning that they are 100% positively correlated, -1 meaning they are 100% negatively correlated, and 0 meaning they are not correlated at all.)

BABIP: 0.26
GB/FB: -0.56
LD%: 0.07
GB%: -0.53
FB%: 0.54
IFFB%: -0.29
HR/FB: 0.60
IFH: 0.22
IFH%: 0.29
BUH: -0.52

(BABIP: Batting average on balls in play; GB/FB: Ground balls per fly ball; LD%: Line drive percentage; GB%: Ground ball percentage; FB%: Fly ball percentage; IFFB: Infield fly ball percentage; HR/FB: Homeruns per fly ball; IFH: Infield hits; IFH%: Infield hit percentage; BUH: Bunt Hits)

So, what can we take from this? First off, and very surprisingly, LD% is almost entirely uncorrelated to speed of the ball off the bat. This is somewhat counterintuitive. For years you've heard analysts and bloggers alike refer to line drives as hard hit balls, not least of all at this blog. This data runs counter to that theory. This bears watching as the above data is for April 2009 only, and we're going to see all of these shifting around over time (but not THAT much).

While LD% is mostly unconnected to off-the-bat speed, fly ball % and ground ball % are clearly very connected--with higher speed off the bat leading to more fly balls, and lower speed off the bat leading to more ground balls--and at the same rate in opposite directions: 0.54 and -0.53 respectively.

In other, unsurprising news, higher speed off the bat correlates very strongly to how often fly balls convert into home runs (0.60). I'll be very interested to see the data for our friend Big Papi, for instance, and also for Mariano Rivera. Ortiz's problem stems from his extraordinarily low HR/FB%, and Mo's troubles have come from precisely the opposite.

Surprisingly, while the correlation is somewhat low, harder hit balls lead to more infield hits. I can't tell if this is because the defensive players are placed farther back against teams that hit the ball harder, or if it's because of the Baltimore Chop phenomenon, where batters slam balls directly down in front of the plate, hoping to get across 1B while the fielders are waiting for the ball to come down. Sure doesn't appear to have anything to say about well placed dribblers, which are the slowest kind of ground balls, right?

And on the BABIP note, while we've been saying for years that the best way to improve BABIP is to hit the ball hard, I guess that was back when we thought that hitting the ball hard meant hitting line drives. This data pretty much deep sixes that theory, right? Given that LD% (on which average BABIP floats around .700) is mostly unconnected to average speed off the bat, neither will BABIP be.

As far as it concerns the Yankees, it seems to me that given the correlations to FB% and HR/FB% shown above, the teams that have the highest speed off the bats will be very worth watching in homer friendly Yankee Stadium.

Oh, and as Matthew suggested, the more bunts, the lower the average speed off the bat, unsurprisingly.

You know you're a dork when...

2009-06-09T00:22:00.004-04:00

I'm far, far too excited about the prospect of the newest SABR wet dream out there--Hit f/x. Return customers to this site have undoubtedly read some analysis using Pitch f/x, which has been available very easily via brooksbaseball.net. It basically gives very, very detailed information about each individual pitch. Location, movement (vertical and horizontal), spin, speed, etc. Well, now they've gone and done it again, except they're tracking balls headed away from the plate, as opposed to towards it.

This opens up quite a list of analyses, including significant possibilities for defensive metrics, assuming the ball will be tracked all the way from bat to glove (be it a fielder's or a fan's). For the moment only those lucky enough to have attended the January Pitch f/x conference in San Francisco (yes, we have conferences) have access to the data, and it's limited to April 2009 only, but it's a start, and what we've got so far is rather interesting.

The first look, from Matthew Carruth over at Fangraphs.com:

"Here, then as a quick taste, are the initial speeds off the bat for teams over the month of April.

TEX 85.1
CLE 83.5
TOR 83.4
BAL 82.5
BOS 82.2
MIL 82.2
COL 82.2
ARI 81.8
WAS 81.8
ANA 81.7
LAN 81.7
PHI 81.5
DET 81.2
NYA 80.9
MIN 80.7
SFN 80.7
CHA 80.4
TBA 80.4
KCA 80.2
SLN 80.1
FLO 80.0
CHN 79.8
SDN 79.6
PIT 79.5
OAK 79.4
SEA 79.0
HOU 78.9
ATL 78.4
CIN 77.6
NYN 77.4

As you might suspect, this tracks extremely well with a team’s overall wOBA. National League teams are going to get dragged down a bit because of pitchers hitting, so a straight comparison across leagues is not really fair. Also, I suspect that the spreads between good and bad hitting teams are further exacerbated by the worst hitting teams bunting more often."

As I noted in the comments of that same page: I'm so excited, I could pee.

The fall of the Blue Jays

2009-06-08T16:37:00.007-04:00

Courtesy of MLBtraderumors.com, we hear that no one has yet tried to pry away Roy Halladay from our northern neighbors.

"Bill Shaikin of the LA Times reported yesterday that no one's calling the Blue Jays about Roy Halladay. "We haven't gotten one call," Jays GM J.P. Ricciardi said.

It's not for a lack of interest- Halladay became the first ten-game winner in the majors yesterday and he leads the AL in innings pitched and strikeout to walk ratio. He's been a top-five Cy Young finisher each of the last three years and while he makes a lot of money, he's hardly overpaid at $14.25MM this year and $15.75MM next. Ricciardi's not fielding calls, because the Jays are 32-27, just two games back of the Yankees in the AL East. Ricciardi believes the Jays need Halladay for them to win.

"We're not going to be a playoff team without Roy Halladay."

Ricciardi repeated that he does not expect to trade Halladay and plans to work on an extension with him after the season."

Ricciardi is absolutely correct here. The Blue Jays, minus Roy Halladay, would be destined to fight it out with the Orioles for 4th place in the AL East, behind the financial behemoth Yankees and Red Sox, and the talented young Rays. The trouble is, he's implying that the Blue Jays will in fact be a playoff team with Doc leading the staff, which is a tough stance to defend. PECOTA currently pegs the Blue Jays a 9% chance to make the playoffs this year, behind the Yanks (84%), Red Sox (75%), and Rays (26%).

It's very hard to imagine a situation in the next 3 years where the Blue Jays could crack through to the Wild Card or AL East crown, given the minor league systems of the three teams ahead of them, as well as their current talent. Roy Halladay is 32 years old--he's absolutely killing it these days, but let's be clear. Three years from now, he's going to be either on, or beginning, the slide down to becoming a lesser pitcher. That lesser pitcher will very likely still be one of the better arms in the league--but for his window to be the ace that leads a team to the title is closing.

So, my question to you--is it worth it to the Blue Jays to hold on to their ace, and the face of their franchise (so much for Vernon Wells, right?) to compete for 4th and possibly 3rd place for the next three years, rather than trading him for a veritable treasure trove of prospects that will help the Blue Jays in the future when they're not sequestered behind 3 superior teams?

Essentially, all the Jays are doing is ensuring that they have a worse draft pick. I know that's harsh--especially speaking about a team that started out this season as baseball's best team, but the numbers just don't add up for the Blue Jays this year.

You know who needs a bigtime starting pitcher, and has shown the willingness to move premium talent for it in the past? The Brewers. The Mets would also probably fall all over themselves to acquire Halladay (though it's doubtful whether they have the chips at this point). The Phillies could look to acquire him as well--and imagine how high a bidding war between the Mets and Phils for Halladay would go? Whichever team acquired him would have made themselves favorites (and possibly prohibitive favorites) to win that division.

But then again, that's far too logical to happen.

Beware Big Papi

2009-06-07T18:15:00.007-04:00

Floating across the interweb today, I came across an interesting comment, thrown into Rob Neyer's SweetSpot (which, quite amazingly, is still free to read. Get in there before they change that, folks).

"wallysb0105: Ortiz is a really interesting case. As mentioned below his BABIP is a ridiculously low .259. His LD% is 24.1%, way up from his recent numbers around 16-18%. His GB% has dropped about 10 point to 26.2%, his FB% is roughly inline with his career norms, his IFFB% is way up too at 12.5%. But the issue is really his 2.5% HR/FB ratio. On top of this his K% is way up about 10 point to 27.3%, and his BB% is down about 4 points to 11%.

So he's not making contact, making a very different kind of contact when he does, and walking less. I'm not sure a change in luck, a return of his BABIP, is all its going to take to "fix" Ortiz. We're through enough of the season, Ortiz has 225 PAs, that many of these numbers are telling, and are not just a product of small sample size. So, it seems likely he's just lost a ton of power, probably from so loss in bat speed (more Ks), and can still make solid contact (as shown by the LD%), but he can't get it over the fence with authority anymore. Ortiz like isn't this bad, but the Ortiz of 03-07 appears to be gone forever. He may just be a victom of those dang "old player skills."

These numbers were so improbable that I was compelled to actually make the journey to firstinning.com, and then fangraphs.com (second opinion). And, as posited by Wally, Ortiz is indeed hitting line drives at a 24.1% clip, about 1/3 of the way through the season. Small sample size, sure. But as the ever informative Dave Cameron wrote so effectively, there's small sample size and there's small sample size.

Across the major leagues, the rule of thumb is that BABIP (batting average on balls in play) tends to sit around .120 above LD% (line drive%). BABIP on line drives tends to sit around .700. Yes, 70% of line drives fall in for hits. That is, unless you're David Ortiz this year. At a 24.1% LD%, Ortiz's BABIP ought to be about .361. It's currently at an astounding .259. A startling 10% of his outs in play ought to have fallen in for hits.

I try to keep from falling in love with any one statistic, because in 5 years, the more advanced metrics we're using now will probably be footnotes to the new and improved numbers that are going to be developed by the young and brilliant minds entering the field these days. But I do like the relationship between BABIP and LD%, which is very robust over a large sample of data.

If Ortiz was .030 above or below his expected BABIP, I'd be inclined to view it as mostly statistical noise. .100 is absurd. He's still making contact, and he's putting balls in play, hard.

Now, that's not to suggest that we're going to see the 2006-2007 version of David Ortiz anytime soon. He's seen another vital peripheral statistic drop precipitously--his BB/K (along with an increased strikeout rate). In recent years, Ortiz has walked roughly as often as he's struck out. Not so this year, as he's striking out about twice as often as he garners free passes. A lot of that has to do with pitchers no longer fearing him the way they once did. He's also jumped from his K% of 17.8 last year to 28.3% this year.

A deeper analysis would probably uncover that Ortiz has a bigtime hole in his swing that didn't exist before, that is being exploited by opposing pitchers. But it's bizarre to see a player suddenly hitting a ton more line drives, walking less, and striking out more. I'll leave it to the bigtime Red Sox bloggers out there to move the conversation further.

Long story short: Big Papi is going to stop being the butt of so many jokes before the year is out. We can just hope that by then Jason Varitek and Jason Bay have fallen back to earth.

Gotta Go To Mo's

2009-06-07T12:52:00.004-04:00

You know what irritates me? That every time a Yankee pitcher strikes an opposing batter out, the P.C. Richards whistle blows. That every time the Yanks hit a home run, the Geico Gecko does his creepy "here are my balls" dance (if you don't know what I'm talking about, pay attention. It's bizarre). And that every time a Yankee steals a base, the "gotta go to mo's" theme runs. Selling the naming rights for the field I can understand--but what's next? Batboys dressed as Bank of America analysts (deep rings painted under their eyes, and government ankle monitors included)?

I suppose I shouldn't be surprised.

However, the real point of this post is to discuss the recent struggles of Mariano Rivera. Every year Mo goes through a down period or two, and the George King's and Mike Francessa's of the world get all excited. Last night his fastball sat 90-93, not too far below where we expect to see Mo, but without his expected movement, both horizontal and vertical, and he got hammered.

Let's take a look at how Mo's done this year, courtesy of the stat gurus at Fangraphs. After putting up the best season of his career last year (1.40 ERA, 12.83 K/BB over 70.2 innings) he's fallen back to earth with a 3.47 ERA, despite a 14.00 K/BB over 23.1 innings. Let's be clear, folks, the important number for relievers is almost always K/BB, which would normally indicate that Mo has in fact been better this year than he was last year. But as always, there's a rub--instead of his usual 0.50 HR/9, Mo's been giving up the long ball this year--1.93 per 9 innings.

And looking a step deeper, Mo's given up a Home Run on an astounding 25% of the fly balls he's given up. Over the last seven years, Mo's HR/FP has fluctuated from a low of 3.3% to a high of 7.5%. 25% is an astounding rate. And one that with most pitchers, would be significantly luck driven. Mo is a different animal, though. He throws one pitch--and if that cutter loses the movement entirely, as it did last night, it's just a tick above batting practice.

I'm not suggesting that this will persist--but I will caution all the distraught Yankee fans out there that when Mo loses the ability to throw that cutter so effectively, he is going to regress very, very quickly. Perhaps then we'll see that changeup we hear about every spring training.

It's going to be feast or famine--but I'll have to see a reasonable period in which that cutter isn't there to bet against Mo.

Update: Mo comes in to close out the game, and the movement wasn't at its best, but was a notable improvement over last night. Feast on, NY.

Nate The Great

2009-06-05T12:07:00.004-04:00

The advent of free agency changed baseball entirely--good, because it upped the level of competition pretty significantly, and bad because it turned every player into an eventual hired gun. It also causes some troubles for the smaller market teams each year, when situations like this come around.
There are some pretty significant issues with the recent Nate McLouth trade, with the biggest being that Baseball's lowliest franchise didn't get enough back for a fairly premium player who was under their control for the next two years. Oh, he was also their #3 batter who happened to lead the team in HR. Dave Cameron over at fangraphs does a phenomenal job breaking down the trade, which was really made to give their top prospect, Andrew McCutcheon, a spot on the field. Too bad the Pirates paid a premium to make that happen, instead of exacting a stronger package from the Braves.

But this is all from the birdseye view, where we can look at the statistics and the probable outcomes of each scenario. What about the players in the trenches--most importantly the Pirates who had been telling themselves, same as every year, that being back 6-7 games didn't mean the season was over. Add to that the loss of their best player, and it's got to be tough to swallow. ESPN has the story.

"Wow," second baseman Freddy Sanchez said Thursday of the trade, according to the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. "I think the biggest thing was the shock factor. It's obviously a tough pill to swallow. Our No. 3 hitter just got taken away, the guy who leads our team in home runs and RBIs, and we were 6½ games out. We could still have been right there. I think we still can. But we're all just kind of wondering right now ... wondering what it is."

"There ain't a guy in here who ain't [ticked] off about it," said first baseman Adam LaRoche, according to the report. "It's kind of like being with your platoon in a battle, and guys keep dropping around you. You keep hanging on, hanging on, and you've got to figure: How much longer till you sink?

It's fine. Heck with it. We're not the GM. We don't run the team. If they feel like it's the best move for three or four years from now, great," LaRoche said, according to the report. "Unfortunately, that does me no good. I've still got to be in here telling guys it's going to be fine with Nate gone. Well, you can only do that for so long until guys just kind of ... well, they know."

If you want a lesson in how to lose any possible fans you may have, this is probably it. Add in the fact that the Pirates are about to take the record for consecutive losing seasons by a sports franchise (we are not talking just baseball here) with their 18th consecutive losing season, and it's tough going in Pittsburgh.

Of course, what did the Pirates do after finding out about losing their best player? Went out and completed a sweep of the Mets--and Andrew McCutcheon scored 3 times. Maybe they know something we don't.

Yankee fans complain about everything. Read this story and know--things could sure be a lot worse.

The Fall of Andy Pettitte...?

2009-06-04T00:28:00.002-04:00

Is Andy Petttitte going down the same track as last season? When he started off the season strong, and finished the second half with an ERA over 6? Or is his stuff flattening out, with his cutter not as tight, curve not as sharp, fastball without that zip? Or is his body just fatigued, with his arm dragging slightly?

It's really hard to say with Andy Pettitte, as some days he looks sharp and dominant, and other's, like tonight, when he looks lost and cannot find the strikezone. Andy did have a sore back after his last start, which only lasted 5 innings, and that could be why he was so wild tonight. Sure, his record looks good at 5-2, but Andy Pettitte certainly did not look good tonight, walking a season high 6 batters in the game. As a matter of fact, Andy has been wild all season, as he's walked at least 4 in 5 of 11 starts this season. Last season, he walked four only once in 33 starts, although he walked at least 3 in 10 out of the 33. His K:BB ratio is also way down (1.37) from his career numbers, as he's been well above 2 for his career. He even had a K:BB ratio of 3 last season, and that's after he struggled so mightily in the second half.

It's sad to see Andy Pettitte struggle as he has been of late. Once the leader of the staff, this season he's a mere 4th or 5th starter in this star studded rotation, and the grizzly old veteran of the rotation at the age of 36 (37 on June 15th). If he keeps up his inconsistencies, the walks will eventually catch up to him, and unfortunately, the Yankees may be forced to make a move. If he cannot find the strikezone, and his ERA balloons as it did last season, should the Yankees replace him? With Phil Hughes throwing so well and waiting in the wings with the return of Chien-Ming Wang, does Andy Pettitte need to prove he's deserving of a rotation spot? I'd like to think the answer is no, but I also don't think he should be guaranteed a rotation spot.

Ultimately, if he's hurting, he should be given rest. He shouldn't be forced out there every fifth day at less than 100% with the plethora of pitching on this Yankees team. If he's pitching with a balky back, he's undoubtedly doing damage to his elbow in compensation. Last season's struggles were definitely due to some kind of injury whether Pettitte admits to it or not, as the Yankees had no other choice but to start him down the stretch every time up in the rotation. Let's get him healthy this year, as he'll be a valuable piece of this rotation down the stretch and into the playoffs.

Look ma, I'm on the radio!

2009-06-03T18:22:00.007-04:00

So today I had the privilege of talking to Michael Kay on his radio show on 1050 ESPN Radio on my way home from work. After Brian Cashman had a very insightful conversation on the state of the Yankees with Kay, the prompt to call in for listeners was given. I was the first to get through, and after the commercial break, the first listener to go on and talk with him.

My first point (after telling him that I've always been a fan) was that recent events and some deep thinking, as well as his discussion with Brian Cashman, that I, GEOFF BANSEN, LONGTIME and poignant supported of Joba being in the bullpen, stated that I was actually glad that he was now starting, and that the front office stuck to their plan. Ever since he hurt his arm last August in Texas, Joba can no longer get going and throw 96-98 mph right away. It takes him longer to warm up and iron out his kinks (hence his early inning struggles this year). Point being, in order for him to come in int the 8th inning, he would have to start getting loose and warming up in the 5th or 6th. The Yanks have even gone to the lengths of giving him a simulated 1st inning before his games, to help him get rid of anything before the 1st inning actually starts. And now that he has learned to tone it down and pace himself, there is little chance that Joba will return to beyond the outfield wall anytime in the foreseeable future.

Okay, now that the shock of my jump off the Joba-bullpen bandwagon has worn off, I shall move on to the next thing I talked to Michael Kay about. I asked him (knowing full well what his answer would be, as I shared the same feelings) if you would ever think of shopping around Phil Hughes now that Chien-Ming Wang is heading back to the rotation. Of course he said no (at first he thought I was talking about shopping Wang around, but he disagreed with that too until I corrected him). Michael said that unless you were going to get something great in return for him, like a young and upcoming superstar, there is no way you would get rid of the 22 year old (soon to be 23 later this month) Hughes in a trade. Furthermore, Andy Pettitte's future with the team, like it has been for a while now, is uncertain at the end of this year. There is a good chance that he will follow in Mike Mussina's footsteps of last year and call it quits at the end of 2009, leaving an open spot in the rotation for Hughes. He then concluded with something that is a testament to exactly how I feel about this situation: "They turned down Johan Santana for him, so who would you take for him?"

The Yankees made a monumental choice to stay young and keep there growing prospects instead of taking the Cy Young-caliber lefty off the Twins' hands in the '07-'08 off-season. Indeed it looked more and more like the wrong decision last year, and as Kay pointed out Hughes had his chance last year to be an integral part of the rotation and performed poorly. But Melky Cabrera is having an excellent year, Ian Kennedy is dominating in the minors, and Phil Hughes is now Major League-ready. Kay also pointed out that many successful Major League pitchers did not get their start in the rotation until they were 24 or 25. The point of this all is that Phil Hughes will one day, sooner or later, get his chance again in the Yankees starting rotation.

In the mean time, Joe Girardi will continue to use Hughes out of the bullpen in Brian Cashman's words, "in whatever way he [Joe]wants to use him." Girardi stated in a press conference that he is not afraid to use Hughes in any role, "in the 4th or in the 7th or 8th". This could indeed work out well for the Yankees, as right now the bullpen is the one weakness this team has had. The option is for Hughes to be in the bullpen, or to send him back down to AAA so that he can still throw every 5 days and keep him ready for next season. Hughes could wind up developing into a shut-down 8th inning guy, and there is a good chance he will get a chance if Brian Bruney can't fully come back from injury in the near future. But earlier in the show, Cashman made a great point. He said that the Yanks have been on a great stretch, and that has been with the bullpen not at 100%. Bruney has been injured, so has Damaso Marte, and Jose Veras isn't the dominant reliever that he was last season.

However, the Yankees has done the most important thing through all of that: WON. And if they can do it with an incomplete bullpen, then they would be fine once the injuries subsided and the bullpen found it's groove. I am perfectly okay with either decision. If Hughes finds a niche in the bullpen, that is great and it could significantly help us. However, if the injured relievers come back and can throw even somewhat effectively, than Hughes should go back to AAA and continue to throw and work on his stuff, even if he is Major League-ready. As I put it best in my brief conversation with Michael Kay, "pitching is a huge amenity in this league nowadays", so holding on to Phil Hughes is a smart decision in either case.

Wang Returns

2009-06-03T17:08:00.002-04:00

From ESPN 1050 Radio's Andrew Marchand, we get the news that Chien-Ming Wang will start Thursday June 4th against the Texas Rangers in place of #5 starter Phil Hughes. Hughes will take over the long-man spot in the rotation, which assumedly shifts Alfredo Aceves into a shorter bullpen role. Per Peter Abraham, Cashman has said that this is a temporary assignment for Hughes, who is still a starting pitcher long-term.

As I've stated here multiple times, Hughes is my favorite prospect, ever. I've been waiting for his ascenscion since 2005 when he drifted onto my prospect radar. However, this move makes all sorts of sense, given how strong Wang has looked since coming off the DL.

Phil is still very young, and has all sorts of time left under the Yankees' control. We can only hope and pray that one day he wins 19 games in a season--a feat that Wang has accomplished twice already, and was on track to do again last year before his injury.

Before going on the DL this season, Wang was a line drive machine, and he wasn't missing bats. There was a lot of contact, most of it hard.

Since coming back, he's been a groundball machine, and more importantly a swinging strike machine. Most of his contact has been weak, and he's been inducing a lot of whiffs with the sinker. That's a very, very good sign. We shouldn't expect him to go more than 80 pitches or so tomorrow--he's going to have to work his way back up from his relief role.

The Yankees current 'tough decision' on starters is indicative of how well off the team is currently. I know 28 other GMs who would kill to have to decide between 6 quality starters for their rotation. The only other team in a remotely similar situation is Boston, and amongst their candidates are Dice-BB, Brad Penny and John Smoltz (all of whom are standing in the way of the laptop thief.)

The Yankees are definitely a fun team to watch right now. It's really quite amazing that they're ahead of the Red Sox even having lost all 5 of their games previously.

American Idle

2009-05-31T11:36:00.006-04:00

After winning two solid games in Cleveland, the Yankees play for the sweep this afternoon, and there will be one man standing in their way: Yankee fan favorite Carl Pavano.

Pavano's statline does him no favors this year, with his ERA standing at a plump 5.50, but he's actually been significantly better than that. His FIP (fielding independent version of ERA) stands at 3.77--which indicates he's been the victim of some shoddy fielding and bad luck thus far. To put that in context, that's more than 1.00 FIP ERA below AJ Burnett's 5.10 and Andy Pettitte's 4.86. Sabathia's 3.51 is only slightly better.

How has he done this? His H/9 and BB/9 are both in line with the numbers he put up on the Yankees, but his K/9 has gone from ~4.5 to 7.5.

Another (infuriating) statistic from fangraphs.com (if you haven't checked it out, do so) is the $ value of his performance. Thus far in 2009, Pavano has been worth $5.6 million to the Indians, a bigtime bargain, given they are paying him $1.5 million for the season. Over his time with the Yankees he took home $39.95 million, and was worth $4.2 million, over all four years.

Here's to hoping the Yankees exact some revenge today, and head home broomstick in hand.

This one's for StaplerDog

2009-05-30T22:38:00.005-04:00

Those of you who are return customers here at The Yankees Dollar probably have noticed the character named StaplerDog who signs all of his comments with an emphatic "GO REDSOX!!!"

To say he despises A-Rod is an understatement, with one of his common retorts having to do with A-Rod's attempt to slap the ball out of Bronson Arroyo's hand in game 7 of the 2004 ALCS.

For instance: "Will, just get used to the fact that, while your team might have one of the best players in baseball, A-Rod is not a guy to you can feel proud about, whether its smacking the ball out of Bronson Arroyo's glove or using steroids."

Now, I was actually pissed off enough to not watch the Red Sox ALCS in 2007, against the Cleveland Indians. However, today, I was made aware of the reigning AL MVP (Dustin Pedroia) pulling an A-Rod and trying to slap the ball out of Victor Martinez's glove on his way to 1B. (shown in the picture above, with a lovely purse photoshopped in by the jesters at Booneville.)

What say you now, StaplerDog? Can you be tremendously proud of your 2B, having watched him perform such a lowly act? Or is this something that a lot of athletes would do, especially with the playoffs on the line, as both Alex and Dustin did?

Were you happy and proud of Clay Buchholz's no hitter in 2007? Of course you would be. But did you know that the kid was once caught stealing 29 laptops from a middle school? He only fell to the Red Sox because teams were scared off of his makeup--this was in 2004.

I kid because I love, of course. I'm glad to have thoughtful responses popping up on TYD from time to time. However, I wonder if StD (As I may refer to dear StaplerDog going forward) had seen the Dustin 1B slap, and just managed to ignore it, even as he judged A-Rod from left, right and center.

In other news, the Yankees are 1.5 games up on the Red Sox. Life is good.

New York Stock Exchange

2009-05-28T19:55:00.002-04:00

It's a tough time to be a Mets fan. You've just lived through two of the worst late season choke jobs in the memorable past. The Mets' hated rival Phillies just won the world series. Jose Reyes, Carlos Delgado, and Ryan Church are injured, Livan Hernandez is your #4 starter and Jose Castillo is your 2B. Nevermind the absurd contract given the crappy starter Oliver Perez in the offseason. And there are previous few teams willing to move any pitchers for reasonable prospect packages, unless they're saving serious money in the process.

But it turns out at least one team out there is probably looking to move a starting pitcher, or at least kicking the tires on trades. That team is the Yankees, which doesn't know what to do with Chien-Ming Wang.

The common strategy is almost always to deal from strength, for weakness. What is the Yankees' biggest weakness? Besides the bench, for which they're not going to trade Wang, it's the bullpen. And it turns out that the Mets have one of the best bullpens in the game.

I understand that it's never a bad thing to have additional starting pitching. As blog-guru Rob Neyer noted a few days back, the two teams that have too many quality starters at the moment are the Red Sox and the Yankees, and that's not unconnected from their ability to make the postseason almost every year.

But I look at Aceves, and I see an absolutely solid #5 starter, and probably better. Ian Kennedy is down with an aneurism in his shoulder, but Zach McAllister is on his way up, followed by a raft of high ceiling pitching prospects in the lower levels of the Yankees' farm system. And most importantly, CC, AJ, Joba and Hughes are locked up for the forseeable future (and Pettitte will probably be extended to 2010 if he continues to perform this year). There just aren't that many spots in the immediate future.

Either Wang or Hughes in the bullpen is a huge waste. An even larger waste would be moving Joba there--the kid has an ERA under 2.50 in his starting career. That's extraordinarily valuable.

One of these three guys will have to move, either to the bullpen, the minors, or another team. I'd suggest it makes more sense to get usable value for Wang, if a proper package would be coming back, especially given his impending arbitration, followed by free agency. A deal headed by J. J. Putz would make a lot of sense for the bullpen starved Yankees, and adding a solid OF bat such as Ryan Church could also be attractive.

Either way, some move will have to be made. It'll be interesting to watch the performances of Hughes and Wang as they essentially vie for a spot on the Yankees 25 man roster.

Boston looking to acquire black hole

2009-05-28T17:01:00.002-04:00

From Yahoo Sports' Gordon Edes:

• The Boston Red Sox have been scouting underachieving Atlanta outfielder Jeff Francoeur as they look to improve their outfield depth, especially in right field. J.D. Drew (notes) has had back and shoulder issues and seldom makes it through a season without breaking down, while his backup, Rocco Baldelli (notes), has ongoing medical concerns that make his availability suspect.

Francoeur, 25, hasn’t regained the power stroke that netted him 29 home runs in 2006, his first full season in the big leagues, but some scouts are convinced a change of scenery would do him wonders. And his durability is unquestioned – Francoeur did not miss a game in 2006 and ’07 and played in 155 in 2008.

As a Yankees fan, I very much hope that the Sox are very interested in Frenchie, and that his durability remains unquestioned. Because the more at bats they give to an outfielder currently OBPing .275, (only a bit below his career level of .309), the worse off they will be.

Possible trade targets

2009-05-28T15:08:00.004-04:00

Courtesy of Buster Olney, the following tidbit:

2. Imagine Mark DeRosa as a big hunk of tuna, bait on a hook. One of the looming shadows circling below is that of the New York Yankees, who are weighing options and haven't decided whether to take a shot at the versatile veteran.

Joseph Pawlikowski over at River Avenue Blues has the following to say:

Make no mistake: DeRosa is a better option than any of the three current ones (Pena, Ransom, Berroa). He can also play the outfield in a pinch, and can do so reasonably well (11.5 UZR/150 in 451.2 innings in 2008). He can also play every position in the infield, and for the most part with competence.

Mark DeRosa would certainly be an upgrade offensively over Ramiro Pena for the Yankees--PECOTA expects him to OBP .349 compared to Pena's .302, along with double digit homeruns. But is it really so cut and dried, Joseph? While DeRosa can play just about every position on the diamond save catcher, UZR doesn't think too highly of his defense just about anywhere other than RF (+20.5/150 games). In reasonable sample sizes at 2B, SS and 3B he's been decidedly mediocre (-7.5, -8.4, -6.5 respectively) and in a tiny sampling at 1B he's been a butcher (-22.3).

Ramiro Pena, on the other hand, has not gotten enough of a major league sampling to truly use UZR to evaluate his performance. That said, he's been thrilling to watch in the field (not the best measurement of talent, but all we've got to go on in this case). I'll be interested to watch how his defensive metrics fluctuate, if he gets a chance to add to them.

I won't say definitively that DeRosa would not be an upgrade over Pena. I certainly won't agree with Joseph, though, in saying definitively that he will be. And the important point to make is probably this: some GM or other will probably be willing to offer more for DeRosa than he's worth to the Yankees relative to Ramiro Pena. There are prospects that need to be considered in this equation, and I wouldn't be willing to offer much up to bring back a 34 year old utility infielder who hasn't proven to be particularly proficient at playing the infield.

MLBTraderumours suggests that the Indians want ML ready pitching for DeRosa. Would you be willing to send Aceves or Kennedy for him? I wouldn't. They're welcome to Tomko if they want him.

And hasn't it been a breath of fresh air to watch the youngsters Pena and Cervelli come up and actually contribute to the team on a day to day basis?

UPDATE: Credit to "TheGameEpisode2" over at NYYfans.com for this, but it's very possible that DeRosa's wife puts him over the top.

Click for a good cause.

2009-05-27T11:49:00.005-04:00

Jason over at IIATMS has found a good cause to support, and you should too! What's that, you ask? Getting Manny Ramirez into the Allstar game, if just to force Bud Selig to actually come up with a solution to what would be a tricky public relations issue.

Stand up and vote, people.

Looks like Phil will get his shot.

2009-05-25T14:47:00.004-04:00

From the always informative Peter Abraham over at Lohud:

"Girardi indicated he’s willing to use Aceves in late-inning situations as Wang is available as a long man. Wang is in the bullpen at this point until they need a starter. There is no timetable for him to return to the rotation."

It will be interesting to see what the Yankees do with their massive depth at starter. Chien-Ming Wang was a premium starter coming into the season, even after his injury shortened 2008. Keeping him in the bullpen will drop his value (both actively to the team, and passively in the package he'd return in a trade) but the same is true of Hughes.

Phil was once considered the next big thing--and a bona fide no doubt #1 starter--back when he was thought of as the #1 pitching prospect on the planet. While his expected ceiling has clearly come down from those lofty heights, if he is even a #3, given how cheap he is relative to Wang and how long they have him under control, it would make sense for the Yanks to explore trade options for their Taiwanese sinkerballer.

This is where Cashman and Girardi earn their paychecks--Girardi's management of the two players will have a big role in dictating how much Cashman can ask in return for either pitcher, and Cashman's machinations will hopefully bring back some premium talent to a system that has recently lost a number of prospects via graduation to the major leagues, skill regression, and other teams.

What. The. Fuck.

2009-05-25T14:33:00.004-04:00

The Yankees are wearing red hats today, at the behest of the MLB overlords. Nevermind that their normal color is blue, and their hated rivals colors are red.

What the fuck, major league baseball?

How The Mighty Have Fallen

2009-05-24T15:47:00.004-04:00

If you're a reader of this blog, you're probably aware of Jim Leyritz--from his huge home run in game 4 of the 1996 World Series (along with other playoff exploits in 95 and 99) to his 2007 arrest for drunk driving, leading to charges of vehicular manslaughter and his conviction in the court of public opinion.

There have been a lot of journalists happy to chuck Leyritz under the bus. It's a good story--bigtime philanthropist, public speaker, postseason hero falls from grace. With newspapers dropping like flies, anything that gets eyes on your paper is valuable. What you haven't seen much of is people defending Leyritz.

I don't know what happened that night any more than you do. I do know that Leyritz was driving with a suspended license (he had not shown up for a summons' regarding him yapping on a cell phone while driving, and was not allowed to drive outside of Florida--the crash occured in NY). But I certainly didn't have any idea that the woman on the other side was significantly drunker than Leyritz was, nor that she had a string of agitated texts sent from her phone in the moments leading up to the crash (talking on the phone is distracting. Texting is almost impossible.)

Leyritz has seen his star fall from the heights to the depths. He's not allowed on the field at Yankee Stadium, despite being an absolute hero to fans who were alive and aware in the mid 90s. He's seen his pictures stripped from the Yankees' heroics history roll. He's had his invites to various charity events he used to headline pulled away. Oh, and he has to deal with three young kids who are one day going to get to read everything written about him in the press (regardless of whether it's right or not).

If you've heard only one side of the story, maybe it's time to read the other.

You don't see that every day

2009-05-24T02:38:00.003-04:00

Tonight, Torre's Dodgers won in the tenth inning on a walkoff walk.

Now, this is a rare occurance, in and of itself. However, this was a particularly special case, because this time the player who walked off was Juan Pierre. The Juan Pierre who, over 5741 career plate appearances, has walked a total of 323 times.

That's an astoundingly low walk rate. Not surprisingly, as a result of Pierre's free swinging proclivities, he's also never been a particularly good major league hitter. In his 8 seasons as a ML regular (2001-2008) Pierre only mustered one season with an OPS+ over 100. In other words, he's been a below average hitter his entire career. To go further--that's not adjusted for position. That sample includes the light hitting shortstops and no bat catchers.

When he's playing CF, that makes him middling at best. He has no place playing a corner outfield, because his bat doesn't carry the position. And this is what makes baseball so much fun. Because every time I think I have baseball figured out, it throws a few of these at me.

Walk on, Juan, walk on.

Don't look now...

2009-05-23T18:46:00.006-04:00

The mythology associated with Yankee Stadium during the dynasty years was a bit over the top. Players spoke of the spirits, the ghosts of Lou Gehrig and Babe Ruth that watched over those teams.

The thing about those teams was that you didn't have to hope they'd find a way to come back--you knew they would. It was just a question of who and how. Regular season or playoffs--Red Sox or Royals, the walkoff homeruns and gametying doubles were almost a dime a dozen.

That's something that's been missing from the Yankees these past few years. In fact, it's been nearly the opposite--given the struggles of the bullpen, it's become common to wonder how the Yankees would screw up what otherwise looked like a slam dunk win. We've been dominated by middling rookies and other teams' castoffs alike.

After this past week, that's officially in the past. The Yankees come from behind in 17 of their wins this season, including 4 walkoff wins in the past 8 days. The Yanks today managed to make Jose Freaking Veras the winner, and Lights Out Lidge the loser.

Earlier in the season, the announcers and beat writers were talking about how the stadium was quiet, how other teams were excited to come in to see the new stadium. There was no trepidation about coming into the Bronx Zoo. Looks like that's changed.

We were worried that the spirits might have left. Turns out they just took their time getting here.

The enemy of my enemy is my friend.

2009-05-22T11:31:00.003-04:00

This weekend is a bizarre time in the baseball world. For 3 days, opposites will indeed attract, and sworn enemies will buy rounds of beer for eachother at the local swillhouses, as the Yankees take on the Phillies and the Mets take on the Red Sox.

Now, for the record, I don't see why there's so much animosity between the two fanbases. Aside from offering Mike Cameron straight up for Gary Sheffield back when he was still a feared hitter, the Mets have been a source of constant amusement for me. From the Scott Kazmir trade (which looks like it will lose its bite soon) to the several September meltdowns, to the fanbase that constantly finds ways to hate on one of the brightest stars in the MLB universe.

They've had a solid team for years, and have mostly been undone by bad luck, which the objective part of me feels sympathy for. But their team this year is real tough to root for--a contender featuring perhaps the worst major league pitcher over the past 3 years (Livan Hernandez), as the #4 starter? And heck, if Oliver Perez doesn't come back, he's their #3. It's not one sided, either-- the Mets have made some good choices that have highlighted poor ones by the Yankees too. Think Carlos Beltran--who was the perfect player at the perfect time, and offered the Yanks a discount to come. He was turned down in favor of Randy Johnson.

Well, at least we got some prospects for RJ, right? Oops.

You know what's cute?

2009-05-20T22:46:00.002-04:00

David Ortiz hit his first home run tonight, in the Red Sox' 8-3 shellacking of the Blue Jays, and he actually got a curtain call for it. You'd think David Ortiz would have enough self respect to not give in to such a silly request, but up Shrek popped to wave to the fans.

Just remember, Boston fans, he's still one behind perennial powerhouse Brett Gardner.

Delay of Game

2009-05-20T21:16:00.003-04:00

For those of you paying attention, with 2 outs and a man on 1st, and Mora on Fire (3-3) coming in to bat, the Yankees used two trips to the mound from catcher Kevin Cash, 3 throws over to 1st base, and a good, healthy wait time between each event, to get Mariano Rivera enough time to warm up. All told, almost 3 minutes of non-action on the mound to legally get him his bullpen time.

It's perfectly within the rules. Frankly, the managers are incented to do this--given that if they venture to the mound twice in an inning (the manager, not the catcher/other players) they then have to make a change--but you rarely see it done.

If another team pulled this on the Yankees, fiery Joe Girardi would probably have something to say after the game about them gaming the system. I can only wonder how common this sort of thing could become before Comrade Selig would be forced to make a change. Either way, it's a breath of fresh air against the old Yankee plan, where we played within the rules and refused to question the other team doing otherwise--think Torre's refusal to bunt against a gimpy Curt Schilling in the 2004 ALCS, or his refusal to call out Kenny Rogers for openly using pine tar on the ball in the 2006 ALDS.

It hurts me to say this, but:

2009-05-20T20:44:00.006-04:00

The Yankees just took out Phil Hughes after 5 innings, 9 strikeouts, and only 89 pitches. That's not a normal move by a manager. So, what does it mean?

I'd suggest it means they're looking to trade the Phranchise, and don't want his value hurt by a 1 or 2 run 6th innings. He looked very impressive today, and for the opposing scouts at the game, this prevents him from throwing up a stinker inning.

Phil Hughes has been my favorite prospect since he joined the Yankees in 2004--and a deeper look into his career can be found here. But this past offseason's massive expenditures--Sabathia, Burnett and Pettitte--really made Hughes superfluous to the Yankees' future plans. Even though Pettitte is only signed for one year, expect him to be around until he can't throw the ball to the plate anymore. Barring a trade of Wang or a shift of Joba to the bullpen, there's just not going to be a spot for Phil in the rotation, and shifting him to the bullpen would be a brutal waste.

Now, there has been speculation that Chien-Ming Wang could be dangled as trade bait this year, in order to open up a spot for Phil. However, his early season struggles have likely derailed these hopes, unless he has a serious comeback (which would then make it politically harder for the Yanks to make the swap anyhow).

Back to the subject at hand--if the Yankees valued winning today's game over Phil Hughes' trade value, he'd have been out to pitch the 6th inning. This is Hughes' 5th season as a professional, he's not a 90 pitch starter at this point. Having struck out 9 batters (8 swinging) through 5 (and 10, if you count the clear K of Adam Jones that the umpire missed*, leading to a homerun) at the very least he would have been batter to batter. I still tend to believe that Hughes will end up being a good to great starting pitching--somewhere between a #3 and a #1, including one or two years as the ace of a major league staff. Unfortunately, at this point I'm forced to suggest that it'll be for a franchise other than the Yanks.

*See below:

I know, I know, this is a baseball blog

2009-05-20T20:19:00.006-04:00

...but sometimes the greater good must triumph, and I am forced to bend my principles.

And one of those moments, dear readers, is this one. Feast your eyes on...Lingerie Football, the league.

Thus far this holy grail of tv viewership has been limited to the halftime show of the superbowl, but a brilliant entrepeneur is trying to bring it to prime time. This is going to bring new meaning to the term "performance enchancers". I just hope there isn't going to be a salary cap.

So much for off-field issues

2009-05-20T18:31:00.004-04:00

For anyone who thinks A-Rod will be affected this year by his off-field issues as pertain to his ex-wife Cynthia, think again. Apparently he's been knocking boots with Kate Hudson, which to me says he's free as a bird.

To be honest, it begs the question why--A-Rod really doesn't seem particularly charming. In fact most of his interviews give me the distinct feeling he can't get out of his own way. But whatever it is, it appears to be working. As long as he keeps swinging that big bat (5 home runs since returning, including one walkoff) I could care less.

Given the steroid use, I don't imagine that's what's keeping Kate Hudson around, though.

Another confusing move by the Yankees front office

2009-05-19T11:45:00.004-04:00

You may remember a post on the backup catchers in our system from earlier this month--it showed PECOTA's expectation that Francisco Cervelli would actually be more valuable over the course of the season than Jose Molina would. Another thing it showed was that Kevin Cash has no business being on a major league team--PECOTA expects him to be worth negative wins compared to a replacement player.

Since then, Cervelli has been an absolute sparkplug in the Yankees' lineup--drawing rave reviews from the pitchers who have thrown to him, and more than holding his own at the plate (small sample size alert--.375/.400/.375). Angel Berroa has continued to be useless to the Yankees, who currently have 4 players dedicated to the left side of the infield--A-Rod, Jeter, Pena and Berroa, but continues to retain a roster spot. And somewhat more confusingly, the Yankees called up that paragon of catching ability, Kevin Cash, to the ML club, and have started him in several games.

What's worse, instead of DFA'ing Berroa to free up a 40-man roster spot, they tried to pass RHP Steven Jackson through waivers--and last night the Pirates added to their stable of ex-Yankees by claiming him. That's right, folks. Another pitching prospect gone from the Yankees system so that the Berroa won't publish his dirt on Brian Cashman's sex life. It's really not surprising that a team took a shot on Jackson, given that he currently sports a 1.88 ERA at the Yankees' triple-A affiliate.

What they really ought to have done, if they really needed that 4th 3B/SS on the roster, was shift Jose Molina to the 60-day DL and live with Cervelli, who is just a better option at this point. But I ask again, why is Angel Berroa on this team?

(Hat tip to loyal reader Brian)

What is going on?

2009-05-18T22:32:00.003-04:00

I was in the middle of writing a joking post about how I wanted to see the Twins tie it up, just so we could walk off a 4th game in a row. Except, the Yankees' bullpen is doing all it can to make this a reality, with Phil Coke walking Carlos Gomez--which is very, very hard to do. In his three seasons at the major league level, Gomez walked 39 times over 824 plate appearances.

His OBP is .286.

My question, where the heck is Alfredo Aceves, who has done nothing but get people out?

Bedlam in the Bronx...AGAIN!

2009-05-17T20:16:00.007-04:00

What an incredible weekend series in the Bronx the Yankees are having against the Minnesota Twins. Each game, although ultimately favoring the Yanks, has been an absolute treat to watch as a baseball fan. On the 11th anniversary of David Wells' perfect game and the 7th anniversary of Jason Giambi's 14th inning grand slam (both extremely coincidentally also against the twins), the Yankees tried to continue a memorable day and a memorable weekend in the Bronx as well.

Today saw a match up between a well known name and a, well, not so well-known name. AJ Burnett of the Yankees, having allowed 20 runs in his last 4 starts, was looking to get back on track today. Unfortunately for him and the Yankees, it was against little known Twin's pitcher Kevin Slowey. Slowey had the Yankees silenced for the majority of the game. It was ironic when Slowey hadn't given up a hit or a walk through the first few innings, it being the anniversary of David Wells' perfect game. David also joined the YES Network crew in during the game, taking a break from his TBS work with Mets broadcaster Ron Darling. It was nice to hear Wells' reminisce about his time with the Yankees and the perfect game. All of the fans still love him.

For For 6 innings, neither pitcher bent or broke. Then in the 7th inning, Burnett finally allowed 2 ER's, one on a clean single by Matt Tolbert, the other on a breaking ball in the dirt that backup catcher Kevin Cash couldn't seem to find once the ball hit the ground. On the whole however, Burnett pitched a good game. He left with two outs in the 7th, and Jonathan Albaladejo and struck out Jason Kubel looking with the bases loaded to end the inning.

In the bottom of the 7th the hometown heroes struck back. Alex Rodriguez popped his second homer in as many games into the left-field seats. Then, the Yankees played some good ol' Joe Girardi small-ball. Hideki Matsui ripped a double, and then the slumping Nick Swisher sac bunted him over to third. Melky Cabrera then hit a shallow sac fly to left fielder Denard Span that would have probably recorded the third out at home had Span made a half decent throw. Matsui (bad knee and all) chugged home without contest. Props to 3rd base coach Robbie Thompson for sending Matsui, perhaps knowing that it would take a perfectly accurate throw to get him at home.

After Albaladejo left a nice bases loaded jam for Brett Tomko, the game really started to get fun from a spectators point of view. Tomko induced a sharp ground ball from Denard Span that had right field written all over it, being that the infield was playing in. But gold glover Mark Teixeira made and incredible diving stop to save a run, and then finished the play with an even more impressive throw to home from his knees! Kevin Cash didn't even have to move his glove. Tomko then induced a pop up to the catcher to end the inning and the threat.

The Yankees had two glorious chances to win the game without more extras. After two short fly-ball singles my Derek Jeter and Johnny Damon, Mark Teixeira just missed a Yankee Stadium short porch HR. Then, after hitting Alex Rodriguez, Slowey was pulled in favor of a lefty to face Hideki Matsui. Matsui worked a 3-0 count. After taking the first strike, Matsui then fouled off what would have been ball four. To make matters worse, he then struck out swinging on a feeble swing on what ALSO would have been ball four.

After an easy 9th for Mariano Rivera, pitching his 3rd inning in two days (and on the 13th anniversary of his first career Major League save), the fans were treated two a crazy bottom of the 9th, one that almost sent the fans home happy again. After a lead-off walk from Nick Swisher, Melky Cabrera sacrificed pinch runner Brett Gardner to 2nd. The next play will go down as one of the most exciting in recent memory. Francisco Cervelli hit a sharp ground ball up the middle, and would have probably got into center field and won the game on most days. But pitcher Jose Mijares spun around and knocked down the grounder with the back of his glove, sending the bal rolling back towards home plate. Joe Mauer picked it up and pump-faked a throw to first base, knowing there was no way he was going to get the hustling Cervelli (a surprisingly good runner for a catcher). Brett Gardner, who did not stop running from second, made a mad dash for home plate. Now I assume that the reason Mauer turned around and ran back to home plate was because one of the other Twins position players had pointed at him to turn around. If this was not the case, then I commend Mauer even more on an already heads-up play, and now also quite sneaky. It was contested on television that Mauer pump-faked in an attempt to lure Gardner to come home. Whatever the case may be, Mauer barely beat Gardner to the plate to record the second out of the inning.

After Robinson Cano flied out to Span to end regulation innings, Alfredo Aceves came in and easily retired the side in the top of the 10th, looking extremely impressive and further solidifying a spot in the mind of Joe Girardi and the Yankees bullpen. I only hope he can continue to throw well and be an important piece of the Yankees' success.

In the bottom of the 10th, Johnny Damon continued to be the clutch hitter that he has been all year and deposited a 3-2 pitch into the the 2nd deck in right field. It was his first walk-off homerun with the Yankees. The crowd went wild, for the third day in a row. I thought to myself, "My goodness, I can't take much more of this". That was a lie, this was awesome! It was the first time the Yankees had three walk-off wins in a row since August of 1972, and the first time the Twins had allowed three consecutive walk-off wins since 1973. The Yanks will try to make it an unprecedented 4th tomorrow night in the Bronx (hey, stranger things have happened). Andy Pettitte and the Bombers will try two win their 6th in a row, and 7th out of their last 8 games.
The Yankees are now only 4.5 games behind the surprising Blue Jays for 1st, and 1.5 behind the Red Sox for 2nd. Now imagine if the Yankees had actually beaten the Red Sox in a few of those games.

By the way, you have GOT to be scratching your head if you are the Twins...

Walkoff, the third

2009-05-17T17:33:00.005-04:00

Who cares that the unimmortal Kevin Slowey made the Yankees look silly for 6 innings today?

Who cares that Melky airmailed another throw home?

Who cares that Matsui should have been out by 20 feet when he tried to tag up?

Who cares that Brett Gardner tried to outrun Joe Mauer by 30 feet (and wasn't close to managing it?)

Who cares that we have no reliable bullpen arms other than Mo (who threw his 4th inning in 3 days, today, and is certainly not available tomorrow)

As of this moment, I certainly don't. Alex Rodriguez and Johnny Damon went deep, AJ Burnett threw the ball well, Aceves took home his first win of the season, Johnny Damon got a shaving cream pie to the face, and I'm caught up in the hysteria that is 3 walk off wins in a row. Can't imagine how the Twins must feel.

Theo offers Ortiz for Gardner, Cash hangs up phone laughing

2009-05-16T23:55:00.007-04:00

Comparison:

David Ortiz--
.208/.318/.300
$12.5 million
Positions played: DH

Brett Gardner--
.244/.315/.402
$450,000
Positions played CF, LF, RF, DH

In other news, Papi will sit for the remainder of the Red Sox road trip.

Fare thee well, Eric Hacker

2009-05-16T22:07:00.003-04:00

In a bit of under the radar news, Brian Cashman pulled off a trade today that hasn't gotten much press. DFA'd Eric Hacker has been shipped to the Pirates for fireballing Romulo Sanchez.

For any who don't know, the way it works is that if a team DFAs (designates for assignment) a player, they have 10 days in which to trade him to another team, at the end of which any other team in the majors can claim him if they so chose (and the Yankees lose the player for nothing). The moment the DFA is declared, the team loses just about all leverage (unless multiple teams then chuck in bids, which may well have happened). The reason they had to DFA him was that they were out of spots on their 40 man roster, which is used to protect players from the Rule V draft before each season, and needed one to add Brett Tomko.

Per Baseball America, Romulo Sanchez projects as a quality major league reliever if he can ever conquer his command and weight issues. Picked up as an undrafted free agent in 2002 by the Dodgers, he was dropped from their system by 2004, at which point the Pirates snapped him up. His fastball sits between 92-94 MPH, and has been clocked as high as 98. His curve has developed into an outpitch over the past year, which has sent his k/9 from 6 (through 2008) to 11 (2009, only 15 innings). This is not likely to persist to this degree, as that sort of improvement is improbable in such a short period, but Cashman would probably be happy at 7.5 or 8.

Unfortunately, this looks like another Veras, Edwar, Albaladejo type--a relief pitcher with reasonable upside, but the inability to throw strikes on a regular basis. Maybe that's the only player you're going to get for an Eric Hacker type, and I suppose given the alternative (a big bucket of nothing) we should be pleased to get a player who could turn into a major league player.

Sometimes someone else just says it best.

2009-05-16T17:03:00.003-04:00

Look, I'm a bigtime stats guy. That said, every now and then (and mostly related to one Derek Jeter) I find ways to let my heart rule my head (for example, here.)

In this case, Peter Abraham really hit the nail on the head.

"UPDATE, 4:40 p.m.: Nice play by Jeter. Suck it, UZR."

That was not an easy play, and it was in that dreaded area otherwise known as "to Jeter's left". Looks like the old timer can still pick it.

Kaboom! (part deux)

2009-05-16T16:44:00.002-04:00

That's what I'm talking about.

On a related note, Alex has just pulled into a tie with big time slugger Brett Gardner with 2 home runs. Big Papi is still looking for #1.

Melky giveth, and Melky taketh away

2009-05-16T15:38:00.004-04:00

After his heroics last night, has to be fairly deflating to be so directly responsible for giving the other team the lead. That's a rookie mistake, and unfortunately Melky's not a rookie so it's tough to justify. For all the runs the Yankees stop with Melky's arm, he has a tendency to fall in love with his own strength and just air it out. We've seen it a few times in the last week or so.

It's times like this that I really wish we still had Larry Bowa on the team.

Usually it only takes 4 balls.

2009-05-15T22:32:00.004-04:00

Presented without comment:

Home Run Watch, 2009

2009-05-15T21:35:00.004-04:00

David Ortiz: 0
Brett Gardner: 2

Melky Cabrera is hearing footsteps.

Wally Bell = Douche

2009-05-15T20:16:00.007-04:00

Another player that you rarely see argue, and almost never see get noticably angry, Johnny Damon was just tossed in the 3rd inning, after two strikeouts looking, both of which ended on Wally Bell mistakes. Did he have a point? Let's go to the videotape.

In the first inning:
And in the third inning:
The 4th pitch of the latter at bat looks like it sure could have been a strike (if borderline), but curiously it ended up in the dirt. Not very likely that both of those things are correct.

They Yankees are clearly getting sick of this sort of thing, and the umpires don't appear to be improving. No conspiracy theorist am I, there's no reason to think they're out to get the Yankees. However, it's tough to believe that things are going to even out this season--the deficit thus far is firmly on the opposing team's favor thus far.

Update: If there's any upside at all to Damon's getting thrown out, it's that we get a chance to let the Melky Cabrera v. Brett Gardner cage match continue. And Gardner came to play, lining a single to CF in his first at bat. Here comes the SB.

Further Update: Actually, Mark Teixeira's swinging bunt GIDP takes that off the table. I do wonder why they didn't have Gardner steal. What's his value to the team if he's not taking the extra bases, and screwing with the pitcher's head?

That's why he's on the Mets

2009-05-13T23:48:00.002-04:00

Remember back in the WBC, when Alex Rodriguez made a point of talking about how he'd really like to see Jose Reyes playing shortstop for the Yankees?

I'm one of the biggest proponents of moving Derek Jeter off of SS as soon as possible. He just can't cut it anymore. However, the reason I'd rather have him than Reyes was evident today, as the Mets lost to the Braves in the 12th inning. Leading off the bottom of the frame down 7-6, Reyes cracked a ball to deep left center field, and started his home run trot right out of the box.

When the ball bounced off of the wall, the speedy Reyes was left at second, while he would have been a lock for third if he had hustled. Three outs later, Braves closer Mike Gonzalez celebrated on the mound, as Reyes looked on from the basepaths where he had been stranded.

Complain about Jeter's diminishing range in the field, about his rapidly worsening selection at the plate, but not about his style of play. The consumate professional, he'd probably have dropped to his knees, whipped out a short sword, and committed seppuku if he had been guilty of the same.

Oh, it's on.

2009-05-13T21:36:00.007-04:00

From April 27th until yesterday, Brett Gardner has gotten only 9 at bats, getting 2 hits, 3 walks and striking out twice. Melky Cabrera had reclaimed his spot as the starting CF for the Yankees, and Gardner's time had come and gone.

Tonight, Gardner has fired back, thus far going deep on Scott Richmond, lacing a triple off of Billy Murphy, and drawing a walk against fireballer Brandon League. He has scored twice, and driven in 3.

Tonight we're going with a random thoughts format:

Lurking variables: Pete Abraham, the most prolific Yankee blogger out there, has taken to showing an interesting statistic recently--the record of the Yankees when the team commits an error. Now, bizarrely enough, this keeps getting worse (until tonight, assuming nothing cataclysmic occurs) so he's continued showing it. Up till last night, the Yankees were 2-13 when they had committed an error. Except, this is pure statistical noise. An error isn't much different from a hit, in that it is (the majority of the time) an extra baserunner and one less out. In some cases, it's just the one less out, in the case of a dropped foul ball. There's a big old lurking variable here, Pete: The team happened to suck on the nights it lost, and didn't suck on the nights it didn't (at least relatively speaking).

Who are you, and what have you done with Nick Swisher? Swisher has struck out 16 times in his last 30 at bats. He is still a statistical oddity, as he has a phenomenal line drive percentage of 24%, but only a BABIP of .311, which has seriously sapped his batting average from where it belongs based on his performance thus far. Even with his recent spat of strikeouts, Nick is the proud owner of a .387 OBP, making him one of the most valuable offensive Yankees thus far this season (oh, he's got 9 HR as well).

What is going on with the outfield allignment? While Gardner, with his speed, makes sense in CF (though early season UZR ratings don't agree) why on earth is Melky and his cannon playing LF, with Swisher, and his solid (but by no means phenomenal) arm playing RF? Vernon Wells didn't end up scoring after taking 3rd on Nick's arm in the bottom of the 8th, but there's no reason he should have been able to make it there in the first place if Melky was being used properly.

Wait, did we trade them Wang? Isn't it nice to see our opponents being the guys forced to take out their starting pitcher in the 2nd inning for once?

That's why they're the Phillies: The reigning world series champions had a player steal home (along with three other swipes) yesterday, and yet I didn't hear about it until I was browing through Shysterball's THT site today (and if you haven't been introduced to Shysterball yet, well, you're welcome). Seriously, I'm obsessed with baseball. It's an addiction. How little press did this get?

He Puts the "Ace" in Aceves: I'm not sure if you caught the following AB in the 7th inning, Aceves v. Alex Rios, but it alone has made me entirely change my opinion of Alfredo Aceves.
Alex Rios was out of the zip code by the time that first curveball crossed the plate. He looked as though he'd seen a Nolan Ryan fastball headed for his face. I may have to make time for an objective analysis on the break we saw on that pitch, which looked (by the grip) like a spike curveball. Mike Mussina made his career on that pitch, and we're hoping Andrew Brackman will do the same. If Aceves can consistently throw that pitch for strikes (and the two above are absolute beauties...downright unfair) he may be a better choice for the rotation than Hughes.

Who needs those guys, anyhow? This Yankees beatdown was brought to you by Brett Gardner, Melky Cabrera, Francisco Cervelli, and Ramiro Pena, four players I never thought I'd see two of in the same starting lineup. Toss in Aceves and Albaladejo, who weren't supposed to be in the bullpen, and Andy Pettitte who was almost not signed this offseason, and this isn't the lineup Cashman was expecting to run out this year. Oh, and Angel Berroa was in at 3rd in the 9th.

Par for the course: So we've lost Bruney and Marte to injury so far this season, the assumed setup bridge to Mariano Rivera. Thank god we've got Coke. Oh, wait.

Home Run Watch, 2009:
Brett Gardner: 1
David Ortiz: 0

Oh, Whitey: Watching Whitey Ford talk about selling his gold coin collection to some chop shop between innings makes me hurt inside. At least when Keith Hernandez does it, it's a Met.

Roy Halladay Is Good At Baseball

2009-05-13T09:51:00.007-04:00

Flash back to AJ Burnett's last game at the Rogers' Center in Toronto.

It is 2008, and he is a member of the Blue Jays. He is at the end of the best season in his career, still toeing the mound in the 8th inning of a game against the rival Yankees. The Toronto faithful are on their feet, screaming at the top of their lungs--they know this may well be the last time they see AJ in black, blue and silver. Scott Rolen's majestic blast to left field off of the much hyped Phil Hughes had tied the score in the previous inning, and they want to see Burnett get the win. Two swinging strikes outs and a lazy fly ball later, Burnett is done. Cito Gaston ceremoniously calls him out of the dugout to begin the 9th inning, to let him bask in the adoration of the Toronto fans, before replacing him.

Two innings later, Bobby Abreu's grand slam would win the game for the Yankees, but the clear story of the night was Burnett, who looked almost apologetic as he walked off the field. Following the path of J.D. Drew and Alex Rodriguez over the previous two seasons, he did exercise his contractual option, leaving his team and fans for greener pastures. And last night, the prodigal son returned home.

But the greeting was not everything he could have hoped for. The roaring crowd reached the same decibel level he remembered, but this time the tone was caustic, angry. Hell hath no fury like a woman scorned, and Toronto had neither forgiven nor forgotten. Mocking calls of "A....J...." bookended each walk, and Burnett's friend and mentor Roy Halladay had no mercy for his old teammate either.

It took Halladay 2 hours and 30-some minutes to cut through the Yankees on only 103 pitches, striking out 5 and walking none as he dropped the Yankees to 15-17, 6.5 games off of the division lead.

It's early, yet. However, the Yankees already have issues with attendance for the first time since 1996, serious public relations issues with their core fans (the ones who don't live on executive bathroom island), a COO who doesn't seem to get it, and a raft of injured stars and regulars. The Yankees need a sustained winning streak, if just to bring back fan attention.

Somebody's got lewd pictures of Brian Cashman.

2009-05-12T13:13:00.006-04:00

...the only possible explanation of why Angel Berroa is still on the Yankees.

Thus far with the Yankees, Berroa is 2 for 12 with 3 strikeouts and no walks. Now, there are a few things to take out of this, one of which being that he hasn't gotten much playing time. So if he had a history of performing well, then this miniscule sample size wouldn't be an issue at all. Except he's been awful his entire career, with the exception of his extremely mediocre rookie season, in which he clocked in at a 101 OPS+.

Now he won the Rookie of the Year over the Yankees' Hideki Matsui with that season, but let me say it again. He had a 101 OPS+, which made him 1% better, on an OPS basis, than the average player in the major leagues. I won't go into a rant as to why that makes his winning over Matsui ridiculous, but let's go a step further in the current direction--his career OPS+ is 76. He's 24% worse than the average player, over his entire career.

The next thing--Berroa has been on the squad since April 25th--this is the 17th day he's been here. And in that time he's found his way to the plate a total of 13 times (he had a sacrifice hit that doesn't show up in his totals, above). In that time, the Yankees have released Humberto Sanchez, and just DFA'd Eric Hacker, two prospects that were on the Yankees' 40 man roster, for want of additional roster spots. And for all of that time Ramiro Pena has also been on the roster (and has proved to be a significant upgrade over Berroa both offensively and defensively).

So let's get this straight. Keeping Angel Berroa on the roster, where he will either be sitting on the bench, or displaying significant levels of suck in the field, was more important than keeping the main cog of the Gary Sheffield trade (though he's since back, the risk shouldn't have been taken) and now Eric Hacker (interview with IIATMS) on the team?

I want to know what Brian is doing in those photos.

Make Swish an All-Star!

2009-05-12T01:18:00.003-04:00

Will came across this great site, started by three Yankees fans dedicated to getting Nick Swisher to the All-Star game. He's not on the ballot, in favor for Xavier Nady currently on the DL, and Swisher definitely deserves to be there.

Please use your 25 votes, and write in Nick Swisher (OF-NYY). Let's send Nick Swisher to the All-Star Game.

Here's the site: www.voteswisher.com

Papelbon's O-Face

2009-05-11T20:29:00.004-04:00

Longstanding blog Fack Youk jumped to the top of my favorite blogs list today with this post, tastefully titled "Papeljerk". Seriously, what would Aubrey Huff do if he hit a homerun off of the Sox closer?

What I'd like to know, is how does his wife, Ashley, feel about us knowing what his O-face looks like?

The end of the beginning

2009-05-11T09:20:00.010-04:00

Saturday, May 9th, a day that will live in infamy.

And so it was, that distinguished Red Sox alumnus Lou Merloni got on the radio and talked about the Red Sox' practice of bringing in a doctor to discuss steroid use with their players—the smoking gun. While there are some threads to pull at, such as Merloni's refusal to say what year it happened in, this is an extremely believable story--I'd be surprised if the majority of teams weren't doing the same sorts of thing.

Moneyshot:

"I'm in spring training, and I got an 8:30-9:00 meeting in the morning. I walk into that office, and this happened while I was with the Boston Red Sox before this last regime, I'm sitting in the meeting. There's a doctor up there and he's talking about steroids, and everyone was like 'here we go, we're gonna sit here and get the whole thing -- they're bad for you.' No. He spins it and says 'you know what, if you take steroids and sit on the couch all winter long, you can actually get stronger than someone who works out clean, if you're going to take steroids, one cycle won't hurt you, abusing steroids it will.' He sat there for one hour and told us how to properly use steroids while I'm with the Boston Red Sox, sitting there with the rest of the organization, and after this I said 'what the heck was that?' And everybody on the team was like 'what was that?' And the response we got was 'well, we know guys are taking it, so we want to make sure they're taking it the right way'... Where did that come from? That didn't come from the Players Association."

Remember in elementary school when you were forced to sit through hours and hours of drug education and sex education, before you even had access to these specific vises? Remember going through the same thing in high school, once you did? All of those hours listening to various recovering addicts discussing their experiences didn't stop most of us from experimenting, nor did the descriptions of various STDs and essays about teen pregnancy stop us from having abortively awkward first sexual experiences, the moment we could find someone to go through those moments with us.

If the team knew that the players were using, they had an absolute responsibility to tell the players how to use properly--and just like everything else in life, there is probably a green zone in which these things are safe. And moreover, when someone wants to use a drug, there's no cure-all to remove that desire. Look at the number of people in this country who still smoke on a regular basis, even as we're showered with pictures of the three fingered woman or that poor guy with a vocoder instead of a larynx. There's no chemical addiction that has been associated with steroids, but there are still reasons to take. We live in a material world: money, fame, beauty, these are things that we as humans are addicted to. Just because they don't get you high, doesn't mean people won't trade their health, integrity and honesty for them.

Showing players responsible ways to use (or at least more responsible ways) is not morally reprehensible at all--it should be expected. Except teams can’t admit to being complicit in their players use of steroids. If this clinic on the less dangerous use of steroids did occur, kudos to the Red Sox for having the stones to actually do somewhat right by their players. While most teams will deny anything like this went on (at least in the short term) eventually we’re going to find out that most players were subjected to something like this. The blindfold is slowly being tugged off of our eyes, as we the consumer slowly dip our toes into the pool of acceptance. Most major league players have been on performance enhancing drugs.

…This is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning.

I’ve used this example before, but it is still entirely appropriate. For years and years politicians have vowed themselves free of sin. Marijuana, alcoholism, unfaithfulness to their partners were all strictly verboten. Except we’re all human, folks. No one’s perfect (especially not politicians). When President Clinton admitted to having experimented with marijuana, you’d have thought the sky was falling. But as in all things, it was only incremental progress, as he caveated that he had never inhaled. Years later, President Obama was questioned on the same thing, and openly admitted that not only had he inhaled, that that was the whole point. And now politicians admitting that they’ve committed the same indiscretions as the rest of us has come into vogue (at least on the level of the gateway drug).

Teams are going to fight the concept that they knew about drug use, at the GM level, ownership, coaches, etc, but they all had to know. Even if they didn’t share needles with the users, or inject anyone themselves, this shouldn’t be a revelation. Now the cat is slightly out of the bag. I don’t know if Lou Merloni’s story mirrors Clinton’s slight indiscretion, or Obama’s unapologetic admission, in fact it’s probably earlier on the timeline than either, but it’s a start. Similar stories are going to come out as time goes on, and it’s going to become less and less of an issue. The insider’s culture of omerta—silence—will hopefully fall from grace, and we can start the long process of getting baseball off the juice.

"One measly shot in the ass."

2009-05-10T21:49:00.004-04:00

The best take yet on the Manny Ramirez steroid scandal, from the ever brilliant Andy Borowitz.

"The national pastime suffered another black eye last night when a mob of irate Cleveland Indians fans poured onto the diamond at Progressive Field to demand that their team take steroids.

Displeasure with the championship-starved squad reached a boiling point with the news that slugger Manny Ramirez took performance-enhancing drugs - but only after leaving the Indians.When asked by ESPN if he ingested the banned medication while playing for Cleveland, Mr. Ramirez shrugged his shoulders and replied, "What would be the point of that?"

Mr. Ramirez is just the latest in a long line of baseball players who have refused to take steroids while playing for the Indians, says fan Chuck Goulardi, 49, the leader of last night's protest.

"Manny's comment was the straw that broke the proverbial camel's back," says Mr. Goulardi, who has seen his ‘roid-free Tribe fall to their juiced-up competition more times than he can recall. "These players are paid good money, and all we're asking them to do is take one measly shot in the ass."

But getting the Indians to start taking steroids may be easier said than done, says former slugger Jose Canseco, the author of the controversial tell-all book Juiced.

"On more than forty occasions I sneaked into the Cleveland clubhouse, offering to shoot those guys up with ‘roids," says Mr. Canseco. "No takers."

Last night's melee was only the latest display of dissatisfaction on the part of Cleveland fans, who earlier this season demanded that the giant TV screen on the outfield scoreboard show a different game."

The unmentioned side story--after Manny Ramirez left the Indians in the offseason of 2000, Cleveland replaced his bat with the steroidlicious Juan Gonzalez. Which seems oddly appropriate, now.

We're winning, but what the heck?

2009-05-10T16:39:00.003-04:00

So what happened to Phil Hughes last night?

2009-05-10T11:49:00.005-04:00

First off, a huge hat tip needs to be thrown out to Brooks Baseball, which makes it very easy to do comparative analysis such as that found in this post. Really great stuff--their PitchFX tool is phenomenal.

The data output for Phil's last three days can be found in the following links: April 28, May 4 and May 9. I'm punting on the pitch statistics table found at the top, due to Gameday's inability to properly label pitches (cutters can be listed as fastballs, curves can be listed as sliders, etc.)

Take a look at the release point charts--
April 28
May 4
May 9
Note that his release point got slightly lower each game. Phil has struggled with his release point in the past, and I'd bet that this had a major effect on the sharpness of his breaking pitches. His curve was a lot "loopier" last night, culminating in Aubrey Huff's home run on a down and away offering in the 2nd.

Next, lets take a look at his movement charts. These track the horizontal movement on the x-axis and vertical on the y-axis.

April 28
May 4
May 9
So, first off, the group towards the bottom right, which is his curve, have gone from ranging between 7" and 10" in horizontal movement, to ranging between 5" and 11". His fastball (the upper left grouping) has also lost vertical movement over the course of the three games--centering on 12", 10" and then 8". His cutter and slider, the middle group, are a bit harder to sort out--other than that he threw less of them in the latest outing. Is it possible that the lower release point has sapped Hughes' movement, making him more hittable? The data appears to support it.

This is where Dave Eiland gets to make his money--but look for talk of managing his release point going into Hughes' next start.

Happy Mother's Day!

2009-05-10T11:28:00.003-04:00

A special shoutout to Manny Ramirez, who has been doing his best to become a mother. Just remember, Manny, you can do anything you want to, if you put your mind to it. And if you need any advice, I've got someone for you to call:

Weighing in on Selena Roberts

2009-05-09T17:15:00.003-04:00

So, the A-Rod book fiasco has turned out to be much ado about nothing. Another round of A-Rod bashing by the media and the haters, after previews of Selena Roberts' book were leaked, led us to believe that this would never be over. New allegations of steroid use in high school, pitch tipping in the majors, and the prospect of a smoking gun had the haters salivating. But this probably ends up being Selena Roberts' last big moment.

Rather than juxtapose my unstudied opinion on her book, I prefer to stand on the shoulders of giants (and perhaps more importantly, borrow their credibility).

From Peter Abraham:

"The book is 246 pages of what Roberts thinks about Rodriguez. What she proves isn’t much of anything.

Because Roberts broke the story in February about Rodriguez having tested positive for steroids use, I wrongly assumed the book would include other revelations. Instead it’s page after page of “one teammate” suggesting Rodriguez did something wrong. Or “a player” insinuating that he did something else. “Friends” of Rodriguez paint him in unflattering terms.

In her postscript, Roberts acknowledges the use of 19 anonymous sources. But no explanation is given as to why these sources needed anonymity. It’s also unclear whether the 19 sources were used equally or whether one or two sources provided the bulk of the information. We’re supposed to trust her judgment, apparently.

...snip...

Throughout the book, Roberts even places herself in Rodriguez’s conscience and writes as though she knows what he was thinking. In her version of his thoughts, Rodriguez is a weak-willed, narcissistic cheater and womanizer willing to do anything to succeed.

Given the completeness of the February story in Sports Illustrated, I expected more in the book, certainly more detail. But the book does not meet the standards of the magazine. It is, in essence, a 246-page column."

From Murray Chass:

"Will Rogers, it is said, never met a man he didn’t like. Selena Roberts never met an anonymous source she didn’t quote.

Roberts has written a book about Alex Rodriguez, and it is a journalistic abomination. That phrase probably won’t appear in any advertisement for the book, but it should to alert prospective readers what they would be getting.

I use the word journalistic rather than literary for two reasons: 1, the book grew out of a Sports Illustrated project; 2, Roberts has been a newspaper and magazine reporter and columnist and as such has practiced the craft of journalism. Based on the book, however, she needs a lot more practice. In general, Roberts makes far too many serious allegations about Rodriguez to hide them behind anonymous quotes. Rodriguez deserves more, but more importantly readers deserve more. There is far too much in this attack book for Roberts to expect readers to take it on faith that her anonymous sources are real and they can be trusted. ...snip...

Roberts and I were once colleagues at The New York Times, and I can’t say she established that credibility. She also didn’t strike me as being a top-flight reporter. As a result, I don’t feel I can trust her book full of anonymous sources. Even if every single A-Rod transgression she reports is accurate, it’s too easy for her to write one former teammate said this and another player said that.

Had she written these same reports for the Times, very little would have made it into the paper. I’m not familiar with Sports Illustrated’s standards, but I hope they’re higher than the Roberts book offers. Actually, if you remove the quotes and other information that Roberts attributes to anonymous sources in the 246-page book, it might be left with 46 pages."

If you were alive and aware in 2007, you probably remember the public outcry at a group of Duke Lacrosse players, accused of raping a young girl on the team bus. These kids, while no angels, were convicted in the court of public opinion of a heinous crime, their lives shattered, as a result of sensationalist writing by Selena Roberts. She pushed those kids under the bus to forward her career, and when it came out a short while later that the accusations were false, she disappeared into the journalistic jungle licking her wounds. The public, it turned out, was just as angry about her false reporting as it had originally been about the athlete's supposed crimes.

This was Selena Gate, part two. Another attempt to be the big story, score the big paycheck, burn her name into history--and this time she'd found the perfect target. Even though America loves to fire up the pits of indignation over the indiscretions of the rich and privileged, the target on A-Rod's back was a whole order of magnitude greater. And that was before it came out that was using steroids. Only now it's evolved again, as the public outcry rages on over her demonization of Alex Rodriguez. I wouldn't be half surprised if Sports Illustrated (her current employer) were to have to trim payroll due to reduced readership, and she was one of the first casualties. Time will tell.

So Who's The New Guy?

2009-05-09T09:40:00.002-04:00

So who is Francisco Cervelli? If you believe uber-Yankee Blogger Pete Abraham, he's not the answer.

Moneyshot: "• Let’s not anoint Francisco Cervelli the new Johnny Bench quite yet. He caught a terrific game and that throw in the first inning was eye-opening. Keep in mind that this is a player with a career .267 batting average in the minors. He’s likely to get abused once the scouting reports catch up to him. But if he can catch a clean game, that’s all that matters for now."

To begin with, Cervelli doesn't need to be the next Johnny Bench--he just needs to be better than his competition. So who are the players currently in line for a job behind the plate with the Yankees (as a starter or a backup). Jorge Posada and Jose Molina are the regulars, and Kevin Cash and Chris Stewart are waiting in AAA. Looking at PECOTA's predictions for the players, you might be surprised what you find.

Using WARP, a statistic that takes both hitting and defense into account, and projects the # of wins a player would be over a replacement level guy, we get the following numbers.

Jorge Posada: 1.3
Chris Stewart: 1.2
Francisco Cervelli: 1.0
Jose Molina: 0.5
Kevin Cash: -0.2

Now, it should be noted that PECOTA takes injuries and age into account, and when both are flagged, it ramps up the weighting on both, so Posada's advanced age and being injured last year means that he is automatically knocked down a peg in terms of projections. I'm uncertain of whether or not his late conversion to catcher (which gives his legs a longer shelf life in comparison to his peers) is taken into account. I rather doubt it, though. And while Posada has done all he can to prove PECOTA wrong thus far this year, his injury lends credibility to the projection.

So the real revelation from this is that Jose Molina doesn't belong on the Yankees club. PECOTA notably doesn't remark at all on the catcher's ability to call a game, but Frankie C sure looked good behind the plate tonight, didn't he? Not much shaking off, good framing, a gun for an arm, and some fire on the important plays. He and CC got into a rhythm, and there was no looking back.

Cervelli is probably best remembered for being the catalyst for a brawl between the Yanks and Rays during Spring Training in 2008. The go, go Rays, spurred on by tough guy Joe Maddon, decided that there was no difference between Spring Training and the World Series, and non prospect Elliot Johnson decided it would be wise to railroad Cervelli on a play at the plate, rather than sliding as most would have suggested. The result, a fractured wrist, and 2 months of development gone for the Yankee prospect. And the overexuberent Elliot Johnson? Still nursing an OPS of .634 in his 8th minor league season.

Count me in amongst those who believe that Cervelli may be a better backup than Molina. And while his .271 batting average isn't great, his.371 OBP would be great for a catcher, and phenomenal for a strong defensive backup catcher. And that he has the league minimum price tag attached for the next few seasons can only be in his favor.

Another way to look at the Manny suspension

2009-05-08T22:44:00.006-04:00

So, your star player who you've just signed to a two year, $40 million contract (against all sanity, given the cost of the second tier sluggers on the market) gets hit with a 50 game suspension for using a banned substance, and his replacement has a career OPS+ of 84 (meaning he doesn't belong on a major league roster). You're boned, right? Not so fast.

From ESPN's Rob Neyer:

You know what's really interesting about all of this? Manny's suspension might be a good thing for the Dodgers. At the moment, they've got a huge lead in the National League West, and it's not at all apparent that anyone else in the division is going to finish appreciably over .500. So the Dodgers can live without Manny for 50 games and they're going to save nearly $8 million in salary and Manny figures to be exceptionally well-rested for the second half of the season and (presumably) the postseason.

I don't mean to suggest that today's news is welcome, or should cause jumps for joy anywhere (except perhaps in Phoenix and San Francisco). The sky, though, is not falling.

The Dodgers are 21-9. Their closest competition are the lowly Giants, clocking in at 14-13, and they currently have an MLB leading +53 run differential (meaning that record is no fluke). Can the Manny-less Dodgers hold off the Giants for 50 games? (they're currently 5.5 games back). I think so. The Diamondbacks (8.0 games back) are probably a bigger threat, as they've underperformed thus far this year, and uber-phenom Justin Upton is showing signs of a major breakout (think Evan Longoria type production if he ever cuts down on his k-rate). Manny released a public apology to Dodgers' owner Frank McCourt (along with the fans, his teammates, and the rest of the planet) but really, Mr. McCourt is probably in his mansion bathing in $100 bills right now. That's 80,000 $100 bills. He could drown.

Lest anyone think Sabathia got help from the umpire

2009-05-08T22:03:00.007-04:00

So it may be tough to see on the small chart, but what that shows is that CC got 4 pitches off the plate, and had six strikes called balls, including this one against Cesar Izturis in the 5th inning:
Seriously. That's first pitch is a 4-seam fastball right down the pipe. The ump gave back the next pitch, which was a bit outside and called a strike, but holy hell. So, to recap, CC earned this complete game shutout in spite of bad umpiring which docked him two pitches.

So, how about Guthrie?Would you look at that. Guthrie got 7 awful pitches called strikes, along with one borderline call, while losing 3 borderline strikes. He had not a single solid strike called against him.

So, while CC lost two pitches, Guthrie really got 7 (or 4, if you want to give him the benefit of the doubt). So that's a differential of 6 at best and 9 at worst between the teams, falling distinctly in the Orioles favor.

Now, this game turned out OK, as the CC we were expecting showed up, rather than the flabby stunt double who has been taking his place thus far this season. But recognize that if the Yankees had lost this game, it would have again fallen under the category of "stolen by the umpires". The only call that went the Yankees way that I saw was Cervelli's throwing out of Adam Jones, which was Jones' fault anyhow (seriously, what was up with that slide?).

Here's to hoping that this stuff evens out over the course of the year.

No wonder Guthrie got 8 strikeouts.

2009-05-08T20:50:00.002-04:00

These two strikeouts took place in the 5th inning, one after the other. Presented without comment:

Namby Pamby

2009-05-08T19:27:00.005-04:00

Anybody else notice that William Shatner appears to be managing the Baltimore Orioles?
That's right, Dave. Now you're negotiating.

Kaboom!

2009-05-08T19:19:00.003-04:00

Well that didn't take very long, did it?

Now you're all in big, BIG trouble.

2009-05-07T23:03:00.004-04:00

Right now, this video seems very appropriate--just replace Adam Sandler with everybody's favorite punching bag. (hat tip to loyal reader Brian)

In the postgame tonight, Michael Kay made the point that the Yankees recent losing streak is a very bad thing for Alex Rodriguez, who will now be looked to as the savior for a season that hasn't gotten off to the start Yankee fans expected. I have a different take--the precise opposite, in fact. This last week has got to have been the best week A-Rod's had in years. Consider where he was a week ago.

A-Roid, the game's most conspicuous steroid user, was watching his nemesis, Selena Roberts' rise to fame. His newest nickname, Bitch Tits, was making A-Fraud and A-Hole look tame. Massive controversy was stirring from the allegations that Alex had made a habit of tipping off middle infielders to what pitches were coming whilst on the Texas Rangers, a crime that may well be punishable by waterboarding in the eyes of the masses. Moreover, with a combination of Cody Ransom, Angel Berroa and Ramiro Pena holding down his spot on the diamond, the Yankees had managed to claw their way to a 13-10 beginning to their season, on track to win 92 games, which would have given them a very good chance to secure the wild card at season's end. With Jorge Posada going down midweek to an injury, the odds of the Yankees falling in the standings even after Alex's return were rising, and George King had to have been salivating at the concept of a "DFA-Rod" headline. What's happened since?

Alex had a number of notable players, including Michael Young from the Rangers, label the charges of pitch tipping as ridiculous. This needed to be nipped in the bud, and very thankfully, it was.

The Yankees went into a 5 game slide, which sets him up to be the hero, as opposed to the goat. The lineup is going to look tremendously different tomorrow, with Tex batting 3rd in front of Arod, Matsui, Swisher, Cano and Melky--the lone black hole (assuming Melky keeps hitting) will be Francisco Cervelli (post on the youngster coming soon). A-Rod doesn't have to be great to be considered a success--the bar has been set incredibly low by his replacements.

Most importantly, Manny Ramirez is caught with octomom juice in his system, making him the latest and greatest of the steroid users to be dinged. Note: that stuff actually makes you grow bitch tits, unlikes A-Rod's steroid which just made him perky. Better yet, Manny denied the drugs, which means that over the next month or so we'll be treated to a steady leak of news regarding Mannywood (hat tip Scott) and the erectile disfunction he claimed he was taking the stuff for. which brings us to the big question of the night:

If Manny was actually telling the truth about the drug's use, would that count as corking his bat?

A good day for ex-Yankees

2009-05-07T19:03:00.004-04:00

Tucked away beneath the ridiculousness of the Manny suspension and last night's umpiring mess, is the fact that Carl Pavano beat the Red Sox, with Justin Masterson taking the loss. It was Pavano's first victory over Boston, who was originally drafted by them in 1994. Fun trivia fact: Carl Pavano was traded to the Montreal Expos for Pedro Martinez in 1997. Between that and the number he pulled on the Yankees front office (signing for 4/$40 million, when the Red Sox had offered him a richer contract), Carl Pavano may have been the best draft pick taken by the Red Sox in the past twenty years.
When the Yankees popped the champagne on the Pavano signing back in 2005, you can be sure they were excited at the complete game shutouts they imagined the sinkerballer throwing against the Red Sox at Fenway. Instead, they got a total of 9 wins amidst an assortment of DL trips. However, for today, all is forgiven. Seriously, I hear he sacrificed his pet goat to get that win--god doesn't make miracles for free. He loved that goat.

But wait, Pavano's not the only crappy ex-Yankee to score a win yesterday. Often ridiculed Sidney Ponson, who never met a buffet he didn't like, scored a 9-1 victory over the Seattle Mariners yesterday. Granted, if there's any pitcher Ponson should want to toe the mound against, it's Carlos Silva, but whenever Sir Sidney scores a win I am astonished. Not only is he a terrible pitcher, he is relying on the Royals (a crappy team that is without its franchise's face and least crappy player -- Alex Gordon) to score runs for him.

So let me get this straight--Ponson and Pavano pitched on the same day, scored wins over two AL foes, and gave up a combined 3 runs? I'd continue this post but I need to go clean out my grocery store of ramen and bottled water. My bomb shelter is waiting.

Game #27: Yanks fail to come through in the clutch, fall below .500

2009-05-07T18:42:00.009-04:00

The Yankees are in between a rock and a hard place. The lineup is inconsistent, the bullpen atrocious, and the starting lineup in shambles. And now they have fallen below .500, but no need to worry, right? Are things going to get better before they get worse, or the other way around? These are the questions that we shall find out in the coming days and weeks.

The Yankees went up against a great pitching performance last night. Andy Sonnanstine pitched well indeed. A.J. Burnett also had a quality start for the pinstripes, but the offense failed to provide him any support, as the Rays led for the majority of the game by as much as 3-0. Fast forward to the bottom of the 8th. With two outs and two on, Johnny Damon worked a walk to load the bases for Mark Teixeira. In what I believe was his biggest hit as a Yankee, he snapped his bat and muscled a ball into the left field corner, scoring Cano, Molina, and a motoring Johnny Damon to tie the score at 3 apiece.

After the ultimate clutch moment, this is when the Yankees started to do just the opposite. After Mariano came in and struck out the side in the top of the 9th, the Yankees had 1st and 2nd and one out. Ramiro Pena tapped a slow grounder to third and was called out on a blown call at first base. So instead of bases loaded and one out, it came down to 2nd and 3rd and two outs. Jose Molina then hit what WOULD have been a game-ending sacrifice fly. But instead it was the third out. In the top of the 10th, Phil Coke promptly gave up a home run to the league's leader of the category, Carlos Pena, who seems to ALWAYS hit a home run off of the Yanks, no matter what lefty they throw at him.

Now, this is really where the Yankees let me down. After Johnny Damon hit a one out ground rule double off of Troy Percival, and then advanced to third on the very next pitch (a wild one), the Yankees failed to score him from 90 feet away. Mark Teixeira, the evenings hero at that point, failed to come through again, and flied out just shallow enough that Damon (who is a good runner) could not score. Hideki Matsui then flied out to Carl Crawford to end the game. The Rays did not win that game. The Yanks lost it. They had their opportunities, and failed to seize them.

I was a big believer of not rushing A-Rod back to the majors, but seeing his face in the line-up tomorrow night will be a sight for sore eyes for myself, as well as many other Yankee fans. Let's just hope that the Yankees can put this behind them for tonight's game and come out strong. Oh, and could we get some better umpires?

The Reality of Manny being Manny

2009-05-07T15:34:00.006-04:00

Manny Ramirez has been suspended 50 games by Major League Baseball for testing positive for performance-enhancing drugs, as confirmed by ESPN.com.

Recent reports have confirmed that he has been prescribed by a doctor for HCG, which is a female fertility drug. In the doping world, HCG is used by steroid users after a cycle to restart their testosterone cycle, as the body stops producing testosterone while on steroids as it is being supplied in ample amounts by the drug itself. Once off steroids, HCG will start the body on its normal testosterone cycle.

This does not, by all means, mean that Manny Ramirez was on steroids. However, I can tell you this: Manny Ramirez is not taking a female fertility drug for health reasons, or to enhance the production of his ovaries.

It is believed that Manny Ramirez tested positive for high levels of testosterone, which would be an effect of the drug HCG.

And if you believe that this is the first Manny Ramirez drug use in his career, just a one time accident, don't be so naive. He's been a perenial power hitter since 1995, and this positive test shouldn't surprise anybody.

What in the world is Manny Ramirez thinking? Which is the question I ask every week when a new player is found using PED's. These players have to know what they are putting in their bodies, and they have to know that if it is on the MLB banned substance list, that THEY WILL BE CAUGHT. There's just no more excuses for it, it's illegal, it's been made very clear, pun intended, that it's illegal, and it has to stop.

This one could be the icing on the cake, as Manny Ramirez is on the hottest player on the hottest team in baseball, as the Dodgers just broke the record for the greatest home start in MLB history, going 13-0. No doubt this is another dagger in the heart of MLB, as the sport continues to suffer setbacks in its attempt to clean itself up from the Steroid Era. As Tim Kurkjian pointed out on Sportscenter today, it's quite possible that 6 of the 12 career leaders in HR will not be in the Hall of Fame, due to steroid use, as well as the best pitcher of the past 2+ decades, Roger Clemens. It's really a shame that baseball has come to this.

I absolutely agree with Peter Abraham in that this could be a blessing in disguise for A-Rod, as he comes back from hip surgery on Friday. Hopefully, this will take some of the spotlight off of him, as I'm sure a Manny Ramirez press conference is in the works for the next couple of days.

Geoff might not make excuses, but I sure will

2009-05-07T00:51:00.009-04:00

At least when the evidence shows there's a reason to.

This is tonight's pitchFX chart for AJ Burnett. As shown above, he got the benefit of 3 called strikes off the plate, and 1 borderline one, while getting jobbed on 7 balls in the zone, and 3 borderline.

That's 10 versus 4. Shitty. But how did Sonnanstine do?

He got 2 strikes off the plate, one borderline, and he had three pitches in the zone called balls, 1 borderline. That's 4 versus 3, which is pretty much even.

So, the point here is that the Yankees were again jobbed by the umpires tonight. This is not any sort of accusation, as I know the umpires would rather get every call right, and it's not a particularly easy job. That said, they get paid rather absurd salaries for guys who work half a year, and have almost 100% job security (MLB Umpire earns between $84,000 and $300,000 based almost entirely on seniority, and with the opportunity for additional mulah if they get selected to do the playoffs or allstar game). There are tons of umpires toiling in the minor leagues for very little cash right now (they start at a mere $1,800 per year), and I bet lots of them are dying for a chance to take James Hoye's place (and could do a better job). If you or I are not performing at our jobs, and there is a large group of cheaper, better alternatives, we're not going to be employed for very long. Somehow, MLB hasn't wrapped its head around the benefits of meritocracy. Luckily, the data is more and more available for easy analysis, and the outcry is going to get louder before it gets softer. Perhaps we'll see some improvement as a result.

And unfortunately, I don't have a way to take a screen shot of Ramiro Pena's foot on the bag, with the ball still outside of Carlos Pena's glove in the bottom of the 9th. Instead of it being bases loaded and one out, it was 2nd and 3rd with 2 outs, and the fly ball to right field that likely would have scored the winning run ended up being out number 3.

You can see the rage in the Yankees' play of late. Swisher and Jeter are two players who rarely argue calls, and both of them have unleashed on umpires in the last few days. There's been a lot of barking from the Yankees' dugout, as well. Oh, for the days of George Steinbrenner commissioning tapes to be sent to Bud Selig's office.

Bigtime hat tip to brooksbaseball's PitchFX tool, which may end up being one of the things that gets the ball rolling on fixing baseball's umpiring problem.

Another example of terrible umpiring

2009-05-06T21:30:00.011-04:00

Here is an at bat (Burnett v. Carlos Pena) from the 1st inning of tonight's game:

And here is an even worse one from the 3rd inning (also against Mr. Pena)

And another (Burnett v Pat Burrell in the 6th):

But now here is one that takes the cake. Here is the AB that got Nick Swisher ejected from the game (mind you he NEVER argues balls and strikes):

It really speaks for itself. And in the 9th inning, Ramiro Pena was called out at 1st base after being safe on a slow ground ball to 3rd base. So the Yanks went from what would have been bases loaded and one out to 2nd and 3rd and 2 outs.
I'm not making excuses for the Yankees poor performances, but commmmeeee onnnnnnn...
These guys are just making some putrid calls.

Oh, and the umpiring was by no means stellar for the Rays either...

Imagine if Cano was having his typical crappy start?

2009-05-06T00:12:00.004-04:00

So the Yanks are back to 13-13, and it sure looks like they're lucky to be that well off. In the AL East, Toronto has scored 38 more runs than it has given up, Boston 19, and Tampa 8. The Yankees have given up 13 more runs than they have scored. Baltimore is a distant 5th having given up a whopping 33 more runs. And the Yankees don't even have a winning record against Baltimore, going 1-2 to start off the season at Camden Yards.

In fact, the Yankees have the 8th worst run differential in the major leagues. Not the American League, the whole shebang. The only teams they can claim to have performed better than, so far this season? Baltimore, Minnesota, Cleveland, Houston, The Natinals, Arizona and San Diego.

Now, in their defense, Tex, C.C., A.J., Arod and Wang have not produced, and these are premium players who will put the numbers up over the course of the season. When Topps prints each of their cards next year, they will be in line with their very solid careers. The Yankees are just waiting to revert to the mean. Doesn't make me any less nervous right at this moment.

Bring me the head of John the prophet...

2009-05-05T19:33:00.005-04:00

I will not perform the dance of the seven veils for whomever brings me the head of Jason Bay. Everyone else is fair game, and seriously, if you don't know what that means, go get a machete and get hunting. On the other hand, you could just blind yourself with a spoon. It's a trade off.

An abysmal first inning

2009-05-05T19:21:00.002-04:00

I have been planning this for days. But after this performance in the first inning tonight, I will later be writing a longer post stating the following: It is almost time to put Joba BACK in the bullpen, where I have always believed from the start it is where he belongs. He is not throwing as hard anymore so he doesn't blow out his arm, and he is becoming more and more hittable. It seems like right now, as bad as it is, the bullpen may even be WORSE than the starting rotation. All that aside, Joba EXCELLED as a reliever, and that is something that we haven't had in a while (sans Mariano). A dominant 8th inning man. I still believe that Joba could take over the reigns of the Sandman once Mo hangs em' up. It is time that Wang WAKES UP and works out his kinks. Andy has been solid, and so has Burnett. CC NEEDS TO EARN HIS PAYCHECK, and Phil Hughes has the lowest ERA of the starting rotation right now. It is, in my view, the STAFF and NOT the bullpen that needs to work out it's kinks. The starters NEED to step it up.

Game #25: When it rains, it pours...

2009-05-05T15:37:00.003-04:00

Alright, the bad news is beginning to pile up here for the Yankees early on. There was nearly a 2.5 hour rain delay before this one got underway, and the game wasn't pretty either, as the Yankees lost their 4th straigh game this season to the Boston Red Sox, 6-4. Phil Hughes was ineffective, lasting only 4 innings with his 94 pitches, and was consistently wild throughout the night. All the Yankees had big problems with Jerry Meals' strikezone, as Hughes was squeezed and Lester was given a few extra inches on either side. Will posted great analysis of Meals' strikezone here and here.

The only good news of the night: Johnny Damon and Mark Teixeira hit back-to-back HR's for the Yankees in the 5th inning, cutting the Boston lead to 4-3. Before Damon got to the plate, Girardi was thrown out of the game for getting in the face of Jerry Meals after Jeter struck out looking at a pitch well inside. Teixeira added a second HR in the 8th inning, another solo shot, off of Boston reliever Ramon Ramirez, cutting the lead to 6-4. Mark Teixeira became the third Yankee this season to hit a HR from both sides of the plate in a game, joining Nick Swisher and Melky Cabrera. Alfredo Aceves was very effective in relief of Hughes, going 4 1/3 innings, allowing only 2 runs on one mistake to Jason Bay, as he hit a two run HR off the foul pole in the 7th.

And more bad news: Jorge Posada left the game after feeling a tweak in his hamstring running the bases. He is scheduled for an MRI today, but Peter Abraham has reported that Jorge Posada is headed to the DL with a hamstring strain. No news on who will be called up, but I would imagine it would be Francisco Cervelli from Double A Trenton, as he's the only other catcher on the 40-man roster. Hopefully they can retroactivate the DL stint to last week, and Posada comes back in a week or so, but I would imagine that's best case scenario.

A-rod needs to come back, and I would like to see him back for the Rays series starting Wednesday. Let's get him back up here before the weekend, because these are important games coming up against the Rays, and you know we're going to need to score runs to win.

The game ended pretty badly too. Papelbon escaped the 8th with the light hitting Molina popping out to the shortstop with 2 runners on to end the inning. With the first two runners on in the 9th, Damon flied out instead of moving the runners up, Teixeira struck out swinging, Swisher worked a walk, and Cano struck out swinging at the heat to end the game.

The fans were also misled into believing that the game was cancelled when it really wasn't. Vendors and ushers told fans that the game would be called, and fans proceeded to leave the stadium. After finding out that the game was really going to be played, fans tried to re-enter the stadium. They were refused with the common "no re-enter" policy the Yankees have always enforced. I really feel for the fans, who pay thousands upon thousands of dollars to go to baseball games, and then this happens. They wait for hours in the rain, nothing to do, and this is the way they're treated. Where's the heart in that? Why couldn't somebody of higher authority come down, realize the situation, and make an exception and let people in to see the game? I mean seriously, are we just cattle to Yankee brass? Yes, as Yankees fans, we do get alot: we're always a competitive team and they just built a beautiful new 1.5 billion dollar stadium. But honestly, what do they lose by allowing the fans with tickets back into the stadium after this unusual circumstance?

I'm done with this post. Sorry if I gave a little rant there, I wasn't even there and it made me mad. So just imagine how angry some of the fans that actually went through that were. Hopefully tonight's game will be better, as last night probably couldn't have gone any worse...

Those who live in glass houses...

2009-05-05T12:38:00.004-04:00

I spent my high school years at a boarding school hidden among the apple orchards of Massachusetts. Known for a spartan philosophy regarding the adolescent need for sleep, they worked us to the bone, regularly slamming us with 6 hours of homework. I pulled a lot more allnighters (of the scholastic sort) in my years there than I ever did in college. When we weren't in class, the library, study hall or the formal sit down meals which which we were required to attend several times a week, we were likely found on a sports field. Besides being required to take part in competitive team sports in each trimester, we had school on Saturday, beginning at 8AM just like every other non-Sunday morning.

Adding kindling to the fire, the students were not your laid back types. There wasn't a lot of apathy--everyone wanted that spot at the top of the class, and social life was rife with competition. The type A's that fill the investment banking, legal and political worlds, these are the kids I spent my middle years with.

And so it was that midway through my 4th form year (a pretentious way to say Sophomore, borrowed from across the pond) I found myself on my third all nighter in a row, attempting to memorize pieces of information on historically significant pieces of art out of E.H. Gombrich's The Story of Art. The day before I had finished a Calculus exam, and the day before that had been devoted to World History. And on that one cold night in February, I had had enough. I had hit that point where you've had so little sleep over such a long time that you start seeing spots, as if you'd been staring at a bright light for too long. The grade I would compete for the next day suddenly slipped in importance, and I began daydreaming about how easy the real world would be in comparison to the hell I was going through.

But there was hope. A friend with whom I was taking occasional study breaks read the story in the sagging bags beneath my eyes, in the slump of my shoulders, the nervous drumming of my fingers on the chair as we sipped flat, warm coke in the common room. My own personal deus ex machina, he ground a small white pill into powder with a credit card, handed me a rolled up dollar bill, and told me to breathe in.

I was very innocent. I matured way after most of my peers, and was probably best known for being the kid who took all the Soprano solos away from the women in the choir as a first year student. I don't think I had ever been buzzed, much less drunk. I'd certainly never smoked a cigarette. And knowing fullwell that what I was doing could be nothing better than against the rules (and less importantly, illegal) I did what I felt I needed to do, to accomplish the goal that was demanded of me. And it worked, insomuch as I woke up and regained focus like nothing I'd ever experienced before. Unfortunately, it also came along with serious side effects, magnifying my senses in a very negative way. I was a stuffed up, sweaty, wide eyed mess, but I studied until the birds started chirping. And I aced the hell out of my test.

Later I found out the pill was called ritalin, and it was classified as a Class 3 drug, alongside cocaine. I did it again, too. Only a handful of times, as the side effects were so awful, but every time it was still illegal, still against the rules. And as emphasized above, I was significantly more worried about the possible scholastic consequences if it was discovered I was abusing a prescription drug, than the the fact that I was breaking the law. Though I was using it in a far different manner than the baseball players who would later get caught with it in their system, it was still very clearly a performance enhancing drug.

Just like every other person on this planet, I was giving into the incentive scheme that was presented to me. The negative of doing poorly on the test was far greater than the negative of getting caught, discounted by the anesthetic of low probability.

I imagine that the same discussion must have occurred in Alex Rodriguez's subconscious before he made the decision to start taking steroids. Alex has been a phenom in every sense of the word since he was old enough to be labeled an athlete. Who knows if he took steroids in high school, and who cares, really. He did take them in the major leagues, he almost certainly took them before moving to Texas, and there's really no compelling argument that he hasn't been taking them since he moved to New York.

What it really comes down to is that the reason Alex did steroids is you and me. We, the public, place the best athletes on pedestals, gods on high. Alex isn't overly blessed in the brains department, he didn't attend university, much less a prep school. He's an archetype, carrying the look of someone who will one day be cast in bronze. He's a physical monstrosity, capable of knocking the ball out of Yankee Stadium with only one hand on the bat. And at the deepest level Alex Rodriguez wants, craves, fame. More than that, really, he wants to be loved. He came to New York wanting to erase the memories of Mantle and DiMaggio and Berra. He wanted to be beautiful and powerful and funny and philanthropic and every other positive adjective he could find in a dictionary.

Really, it was no question whether Alex would take steroids once they were offered to him. They represented wealth and fame above his wildest dreams. Let's be clear, A-Rod could have been a good player without steroids, maybe even a great player. But he didn't want that. He wanted to be A-Rod.

And now the cat is out of the bag. Now that we have a test showing us that A-Rod used, we finally stop turning a blind eye to what was patently obvious before. But only for Alex.

The entire steroid outcry is pure hypocrisy. Look, you and I both understand that majority of the best players in baseball are steroid users. And so are a good portion of the less than best. And when I say that, I do so without adding the negative connotation added by the self righteous media types who make a living by drumming up hypocritical indignation from the masses. If it came out that Mariano Rivera and Derek Jeter were on some sort of designer steroid, I'd be surprised and disappointed, but by no means amazed.

It's why I wasn't surprised in the slightest when Andy Pettitte admitted to using HGH. My only disgust with that situation is that he certainly didn't use it once and then get rid of it, as he said. When Pettitte used HGH (which isn't proven to do jack for athletes, by the way) he did it because he didn't think he'd get caught, not because he thought it was acceptable. And there's no reason to believe he really would have stopped after one use.

This all reeks of the attitude taken towards marijuana by politicians until Barack Obama came around. When asked about marijuana use, Bill Clinton's response was typical: "I didn't inhale." When later asked about marijuana in the context of Clinton's response?

Obama: Yes, I did...The point was to inhale, that was the point.

Just as the vast majority of people try marijuana at some point in their lives, the vast majority of baseball players have used steroids, be it HGH, Stanolozol, the cream, the clear, or any other Balco creation. This game is all about getting an edge--whether it be the front offices using BABIP to pick the right players, Sammy Sosa corking a bat, Johnny Damon using maple instead of ash bats, K-Rod putting resin on his baseball cap, Pete Rose mixing aderall in with a cup of coffee, or Mark Maguire's unabashed andro use. Heck, after ritalin was outlawed in MLB, the number of baseball players being diagnosed with ADD (for which ritalin happens to be prescribed) jumped significantly! Is it ok, since they have a doctor's scrip? There's a lot of money and fame at stake, and it skews that all-important incentive scheme.

Each and every general manager in the game shares at least two attributes. They're very smart, and they're very connected in baseball. They know exactly what's going on, but pantomime incredulity to protect their paychecks and reputations. And we the public let ourselves be fooled. What's worse, when enough information comes out that we can no longer ignore that a player used, we demonize them relative to their 'untainted' peers. By all accounts, Barry Bonds is a real jerk--which is plenty of reason to dislike him. But don't hate him because he's a 'cheater'. In that sense, he's just one of the gang.

Back in February of 2000, I got to choose between breaking the rules and breaking my grades. I chose the rules, and it wasn't a tough decision. And I'd wager that the lure of being A-Rod is a bit more seductive than an A on that Art History test.

A final gameday strikezone

2009-05-05T01:13:00.005-04:00

I call bullshit. When do Umps get punished for taking the game out of the players' hands? That second strike changes the entire at bat. To be specific, look at pitch #3, which was very outside. These images are taken by a set of 3 cameras which snap shots of the baseball on its way to the plate. They are very accurate. Jerry Meals screwed this game up, and the Yankees paid for it.

Weird nights require lots of posts.

2009-05-05T00:16:00.004-04:00

Remember how Melky Cabrera went deep from both sides of the plate in one game, back on April 22nd, becoming only the 9th Yankee in history to accomplish the feat? At the time, I marveled at how rare an event this really was. Well, only one week later (the 29th) Nick Swisher accomplished it. And tonight, Mark Teixeira blasted his way out of a 2 for 29 slump, becoming the 11th Yankee in history to do it, only five days later (oops). Well, technically 6, as it was after midnight when his second shot cleared the right field fence. In the first 107 years, it happened a grand total of 8 times. In the last 20 days it's happened 3 times. What are the odds on that?

And as I type this, Posada looks to have a hamstring issue (get back quick, Alex!) and Papelbon is coming in to try and get the 5 out save. What a bizarre night.

Selected ABs, called by Jerry Meals

2009-05-04T23:35:00.008-04:00

Thanks to loyal reader Mike, who emailed in to tell this luddite how to take pictures of the screen.

If you want to know why Joe Girardi got himself tossed, take a look at the following at bats.

Hughes pitching to J.D. Drew in the 1st inning:
To Jacoby Ellsbury in the 2nd:
Compare that to Jon Lester striking out Derek Jeter looking in the 5th (5 pitches, no swings, only 1 real strike), which prompted the Girardi explosion:
Girardi had a point.

Remember Patrick Ewing?

2009-05-04T23:16:00.004-04:00

This ad played during tonight's game, and I almost fell out of my chair. Trust me, it's worth the click.

And in the time it took to post this, Girardi got tossed after tonight after horrible umpire Jerry Meals called Jeter out on strikes. If I knew how to take a picture of the screen, there'd be several gameday pictures on here showing the different strike zones that Hughes and Lester got. I'll give you a hint, Lester benefitted from this, while Hughes got screwed.

The other Chamberlain parent...

2009-05-04T18:59:00.002-04:00

It has occurred to me on several occasions that while Harlan Chamberlain is almost a cult hero in New York, we've never heard a peep about Joba's mother. Well, unfortunately, now we have.

From the Associated Press:
The mother of New York Yankees pitcher Joba Chamberlain is jailed in Nebraska and facing a felony charge after being arrested on suspicion of selling methamphetamine to an undercover police officer in February.

Lincoln Police Capt. David Beggs said Monday that 44-year-old Jacqueline Standley was arrested at her apartment Saturday night.

Beggs said she allegedly sold 1 gram of a substance believed to be meth to an uncover officer for $110 on Feb. 11. The substance tested positive for meth in testing at the state laboratory.

She was charged Monday with delivery of an exceptionally hazardous drug. Her bail was set at $5,000, and she was assigned a public defender, whose name was not on her jail record.

I can't imagine how rough this sort of thing must be on Joba the player, and Joba the person. Hey, it could be worse, dude. Your brother could enjoy going down on 10 year old boys. And maybe then you'd have an MVP too.

Super Man: Carl Crawford

2009-05-03T16:59:00.002-04:00

Occasionally a player does something that just makes you stand up and take notice. Earlier in the year, Ian Kinsler started off this category hitting for the cycle, and today Carl Crawford tortured Jason Varitek and the Red Sox, going 4 for 4 along with a walk and six stolen bases. Five of these were straight streals of second, along with one of third.

This matches an AL record that was set by the Philadelphia Athletics' Eddie Collins way back in September of 1912. Amazingly Collins did this twice in that same month, on the 11th and the 22nd. There have also been two instances of players stealing 7 bases in a game in the National League, both prior to 1900.

And in connection with the post from two days ago regarding Johnny Damon, it seems appropriate to bring up that Carl Crawford is a possible free agent in 2010, as the Rays have a $10 million team option on the LF, with a $1.25 million buyout. Given the payroll constraints on the Rays, and their other OF options (Matt Joyce and Fernando Perez, with superstar CF BJ Upton) they may decide that giving their highest paid player a raise isn't what they're looking to do. If the Rays aren't in the thick of things come July, look for Crawford to be dangled on the trade market.

Other than Crawford, OF options on the FA market include Matt Holliday, Jason Bay, Johnny Damon, Hideki Matsui, Vladimir Guerrerro, Xavier Nady, Magglio Ordonez, Rick Ankiel, Brian Giles, Ken Griffy Jr., and Jermaine Dye. The only players on this list that belong in the OF at this point in their careers are Holliday, Crawford, Ankiel and Damon.

Game recap #24: Winless in the Bronx

2009-05-03T11:09:00.003-04:00

I was on hand to experience the suck that was the Yankees yesterday, who managed only 3 hits and 2 walks off of the rookie Palmer. Through 6 the game was competitive, if boring, with the Yankees surrendering their 1 run lead in the on a Derek Jeter throwing error. In the 7th, it all went to shit, with CC loading the bases and seeing his pitch count rise to 119, which prompted Joe Girardi to call on rookie reliever Mark Melancon. I'm uncertain as to whether this is a good sign (Girardi trusting talented youngsters) or a terrible one (being so scared of giving anyone else the ball that his youngest and least seasoned pitcher was the go-to guy).

On the bright side, I got to sit in the cushy seats, courtesy of a valentine's day gift from my better half (and they did, indeed, have cushions). Somewhere in the vicinity of the third inning I noticed a menu sticking out of my cup holder. To be clear, I was nowhere near the legends seating where you would expect the best services to be provided. I was on field level, slightly recessed underneath the grandstands. And yet all I had to do was raise my menu, and a waitress came jogging over. On the menu? Johnny Rockets' burgers, Nathan's hot dogs, Premio sausages, buffalo chicken fingers, cheese steaks, fruit salad, Dunkin Donuts coffee/cocoa, and even some premium liquors ($15 for a plastic glass of Knob Creek). I sampled the cheese steak and the gf tried the chicken fingers, and let me offer two suggestions: 1) don't get the buffalo chicken tenders, because they were straight up awful, and 2) if you're going to get food, don't be a numbskull like me and pay extra for it to come to you. They clearly had a stockpile of these dishes waiting to be ordered, as my cheese steak tasted as if it had been sitting around getting stale for an hour or so before it got to me. The line might be long, but just do yourself a favor and go get it.

Quick hits--

Giving it up: The Yankees have the worst team ERA in the majors, at a painful 5.93.

Tex hurting? Pete Abraham reports that Teixeira acknowledged that his left wrist was now comfortable enough to begin taking batting practice again. This explains the paltry .182 batting average, but he's been surprisingly productive given his hitting woes. Tex has walked in 19 of 99 plate appearances thus far, keeping his OBP at .354. That's an astounding walk rate.

No, No, Cano: Cano's hitting streak was snapped at 18 last night. Nationals 3B Ryan Zimmerman has the longest such streak in the majors currently, at 21.

Johnny Not Da'Man: Besides going 0-5 yesterday, Damon let a pop fly fall in front of him without laying out, which led to CCs ignominious departure in the 7th. Had he made the catch, it would have been a no doubt double play, as the go, go, Halos had sent the runner from 1B. Questions remain as to how healthy Damon's shoulder and legs are, as a 100% Damon would have caught the ball on the run, and a less tentative version would at least have gotten it with a dive.

Looking for a Hughes Win: Phil Hughes looks for his second major league win since 2007 today, assuming there is a game to be played in this weather. Thus far, the new Yankee Stadium has held up very well to the weather, as the much vaunted drainage system has done its job.

If they say it on the TV, it must be true.

2009-05-02T20:48:00.002-04:00

Newsflash to the masses, all the hue and cry regarding the Yankees not filling their new stadium don't appear to have much weight behind them, with the bombers coming in 2nd in the majors in home attendance. Thus far they've averaged 44,343 tickets sold, a mere 539 behind the Dodgers (who have the advantage of playing in fair weather California), and a whopping 6,500 more than Boston (granted, this is largely due to the smaller number of seats in Fenway).

And on the rest of the major leagues ESPN's Jayson Stark has the story:

Guess how much lower the average crowd at a major league baseball game was this April than it was last April. Go ahead. Just guess.

Before we go on, we should tell you that we're not including the two New York teams in this question because their new parks aren't the same size as their old parks. OK, got that? Great. Now take a guess. How much lower?

Five percent? Ten percent? Fifteen percent?

Uh, how about 287?

No, not 287 percent, obviously.

Would you believe 287 people?

We kid you not. The average crowd at a baseball game this April was just 287 customers smaller than the average game last April -- even with one fewer weekend to draw from.

Looks like the whole attendance scare was mostly overblown. That said, there have been some sea changes in some specific teams, most notably the Tampa Bay Rays, whose AL Pennant last year has jumped their average attendance more than 10,000 per game past last year's mark. The other top gainers, thus far, include the Marlins, A's, Phillies and Reds. The headscratcher there is the As, who didn't make the playoffs, have been constantly threatening to move, and weren't a consensus choice to make the playoffs this year either, but we can put that down to the additions of Matt Holliday and Jason Giambi. The Reds fall into this same camp, but have a dynamic group of youngsters who Cincinatti can apparently get excited about, in Jay Bruce, Joey Votto, Edinson Volquez, Johnny Cueto and the talented but slumping Brandon Phillips.

And on the other side of the ledger, the Nationals lost 9,000 per game (which should put even more pressure on ownership to sign uber prospect Steven Strasburg in June), Detroit lost 8,000 (unemployment above 20% in the motor city doesn't leave much discretionary cash for baseball tickets), the startlingly good Blue Jays lost 6,500 (shame on you, Toronto, especially given the relative health of your economy), the Braves lost 4,300 (time to bring up Tommy Hanson) and the Astros lost 3,800 (I got nothing).

There's been lots of rhetoric tossed about on the health of MLB revenues lately, but it's mostly overblown. The majority of baseball's revenue comes from media deals which are negotiated on long term contracts with Fox, ESPN, DirecTV, and so forth. Some of the teams may end up losing some advertising revenue, but this humble blogger isn't too worried. The real danger is going to come when the owners are affected by their other sizable investments, especially in real estate, private equity and the equity markets.

And while we did post on this topic two weeks ago, we were prophesying price drops at the new stadium. Oh hey, look at that.

Bring Johnny Damon Back?

2009-05-02T10:53:00.005-04:00

From ESPN:

New York Yankees left fielder Johnny Damon, a free agent at the end of this season, said the chances are "slim" he will be asked to return to the Bronx next year.

Damon, 35, is in the final season of the four-year, $52 million contract he signed after leaving the Boston Red Sox.

Damon said the numbers game in the Yankees outfield does not bode well for him. Melky Cabrera and Brett Gardner are in center, Nick Swisher and Xavier Nady -- who will also be a free agent and is currently on the DL -- in right and the team's top prospect, Austin Jackson, lighting up Triple-A.

Yankees GM Brian Cashman has spoken about making the Yankees younger.

"I know where I want to be next year," Damon told 1050 ESPN New York. "I want to be here in New York. I also know New York has a lot of young outfielders coming back. Austin Jackson is in the wings. At least, in this situation, I know my chances of coming back could be slim because of the young talent the Yankees do have."

Damon entered Friday night's game with the Angels, hitting .295 with four homers and 10 RBIs. He has picked up those numbers batting second in the Yankees' order.

When Johnny Damon moved on from the Red Sox, it was widely speculated that his best years were behind him. Time has told the tale, though, and Damon's four Yankee years look bizarrely similar to his four Red Sox years (though his defense certainly regressed). In Boston, Damon went .295/.362/.441, and in New York .287/.363/.450. There's some time for him to change things one way or the other, but as of now this looks to have been a great signing for Brian Cashman, especially given how much weaker it made the Red Sox. As a result of losing Damon, they were forced to carry Coco Crisp in center, one of the bigger Boston busts of this decade.

Now, as to Johnny's comments up above, I'm not so sure that there's no place for him on the Yankees next year. While Brian Cashman has indeed made a commitment to get younger, that doesn't mean he's likely to carry Melky Cabrera or Brett Gardner at a corner OF spot. Damon, Matsui and Nady will all move onto the FA line that forms behind Oakland RF Matt Holliday this coming offseason, leaving the Yankees with Swisher in RF, Austin Jackson in CF (hopefully) and a gaping hole in LF, with Melky or Gardner filling the 4th OF role. Matsui simply can't play the OF anymore, and thus resigning him is not an option, and it is questionable how large the difference in production between Holliday and Damon actually is given Matt's struggles since leaving the Rocky Mountains.

Moreover, the Yankees really have no plan B after the three youngsters already mentioned. There's no one to fall back on in the farm system after Austin Jackson, as most of the Yankees positional talent remains at the lower levels. And while we can't rule out a trade of some of the Yankees' arms for another team's bats, Cashman has proven to be very stingy dealing his pitching talent, and minor league to minor league trades are rare.

The question has to be one of cost--Damon is a Boras client and will likely be looking to make his last big FA score, having proven fairly durable even on the wrong side of 30. The Yankees have around $35 million coming off the books (Nady, Damon, Matsui, Molina), and their needs will be limited to a corner outfielder and a backup catcher, along with the rest of the bench. They will also need to budget for arbitration raises due Wang and Melky. Would Damon be willing to come back on a one year deal with a vesting player option for the 2nd year based on innings played in LF? It really depends on two things--how well he performs this season, and whether the FA market offers rise from their lows this past offseason.

Of course, Johnny's advantage in the hot wives category might be the tipping point for CashMoney. Seriously Michelle, call me.